Fantasy baseball pitching matchups: is there a more important yet more unpredictable aspect of winning in your daily fantasy lineups? 

That's exactly why Fantasy Alarm is proud to introduce Fantasy Baseball Daily Pitching Matchup Rating Grid: a game-changing tool to arm you with the edge you need to destroy the competition. 

 

 

 

What is the MLB Pitching Matchup Grid? It is a simple yet powerful go-to tool for evaluating starting pitchers each day of the season. 

We will not just give the starters for the day; instead, we will take a deep dive into various important metrics such as opposing team batting statistics, pitcher ERA, strikeout rates, park factors, and weather conditions in order to deliver a thorough rating for every matchup. 

In the ever-changing world of fantasy baseball starting pitchers, there is daily movement with rising aces ascending the 2025 list and aging stars taking on new challenges. 

In fact, it becomes a critical component of DFS lineup selection, spotting sleepers, or steering clear of potential disasters. 

The colors in the rating scale will signify the matchups in the following way: 

  • GREEN - Elite Arms that will face more conducive conditions and thus possess high upside.
  • YELLOW - Slightly riskier plays, but they could have the upside of getting the win.
  • ORANGE - Plays that should be approached with caution.
  • RED - Those facing difficult matchups or in risky environments.

Updated: 6/5/2025

PitcherTeamMatchupKey Stats
Max FriedNew York YankeesCleveland GuardiansCarlos Rodon had a great start the other night against this Cleveland team, and they haven't improved at all against LHP, posting a 25.1 K% and .275 wOBA on the year. Across 37.1 IP at home this year, Fried has a 1.69 ERA, 0.48 HR/9, and 0.96 WHIP.
Robbie RaySan Francisco GiantsSan Diego PadresThe Padres don't strike out a bunch against LHP, but they also only have a .300 wOBA and 94 wRC+ on the year against them. The offense has struggled of late, and Robbie Ray has been excellent at home this year, posting a 1.89 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, and 2.94 FIP.
Framber ValdezHouston AstrosPittsburgh PiratesThe Pirates have the fourth-highest strikeout rate on the year against LHP, and during his quality start streak, which sits at five games, Valdez has a 1.70 ERA, 2.64 FIP, 0.84 WHIP, and 19.9 K-BB%.
Bryan WooSeattle MarinersBaltimore OriolesOne must not fade Woo at home (1.73 ERA, 0.88 WHIP). So long as the Baltimore lefties don't get to Woo, he's in a great spot to extend his quality start streak to five.
Jesus LuzardoPhiladelphia PhilliesToronto Blue JaysComing off the worst start of his season, and maybe even career, Luzardo draws a tough matchup against a Toronto team that is a top-10 offense on the year against southpaws. Alongside a top-7 wOBA and wRC+, Toronto has the second-best walk rate, and third-lowest strikeout rate against LHP. Still starting Luzardo, but not the softest of matchups.
Dylan CeaseSan Diego PadresSan Francisco GiantsThe Giants have the second-lowest ISO and third-lowest OPS over the last two weeks, giving some optimism for Cease today. The road numbers aren't as strong as his home numbers, but the strikeouts are there with Cease.
Casey MizeDetroit TigersChicago White SoxThe White Sox have a .140 ISO and 101 wRC+ over the last two weeks, but hard to fade Mize with how he's pitched this year. Also, he's taken advantage of some good matchups of late and tweaked his pitch mix a bit, leading to an increased strikeout rate.
Ryan PepiotTampa Bay RaysTexas RangersNot only has Pepiot fired at least six innings in five straight starts, but he's posted a 1.99 ERA during that stretch. Don't love the weak 30.7 GB% and 5.97 K/9 over his last five starts, but solid matchup against a Texas offense that has the league's lowest OPS over the last two weeks, and has struggled against RHP all year long.
Noah CameronKansas City RoyalsSt. Louis CardinalsThe Cardinals have struck out at the ninth-highest clip over the last two weeks with the fifth-lowest team OPS (.643) during that span. Cameron has logged four straight quality starts to begin his 2025 campaign, but three or fewer strikeouts in all but one outing reduces his ceiling. For the year, the Cardinals are right around league average in terms of strikeout rate against LHP (22.8%).
Matthew LiberatoreSt. Louis CardinalsKansas City RoyalsLiberatore's four earned runs in his last start marked the first time since April 7 that he allowed more than two earned runs in a start! The Royals are tied for the league's worst ISO against LHP on the year, and they rank amongst the worst in the league in wOBA and wRC+ as well.
Cole RagansKansas City RoyalsSt. Louis CardinalsRagans will be making his first start since hitting the IL in mid-May, and over the last two weeks, the Cardinals have a 23.0 K%, .668 OPS, and .297 wOBA. Threw 62 pitches in his rehab start, so should be able to handle close to a full workload.
Zach EflinBaltimore OriolesSeattle MarinersSince returning from injury, Eflin's velocity in his last start was the best it's been, and he dominated a White Sox offense over seven shutout innings. Also, increased changeup usage in his last two starts, and for the year, that pitch has resulted in a .175 wOBA and 21 wRC+. Good spot for Eflin today against a Seattle team that has struck out 25.8 percent of the time over the last two weeks, not to mention a .660 OPS and .294 wOBA.
Mitch KellerPittsburgh PiratesHouston AstrosKeller's kryptonite this year, and for most of his career at that point, has been left-handed hitters. Well, today, he should get a Houston lineup that figures to be right-handed heavy. Houston's offense has been better over the last two weeks, posting a top-10 OPS and wOBA, but Keller has a 2.90 ERA and 48.3 GB% over his last five starts (31 IP).
David PetersonNew York MetsLos Angeles DodgersA very strong ground ball rate on the year minimizes some concern pitching at Dodger Stadium with the wind blowing out tonight. Peterson has been great on the year, but this Dodgers team has been a top-2 offense in baseball this year against LHP. Despite the tough matchup, it's hard to move Peterson too far down the board, as he's allowed two or fewer earned runs in all but one of his 11 starts on the year.
Chris BassittToronto Blue JaysPhiladelphia PhilliesBetter side of his home/road splits, but he's logged a 5.44 ERA (4.93 FIP) over his last sight starts, including a whopping 1.88 HR/9! Good spot for the Philadelphia lefties.
Brandon PfaadtArizona DiamondbacksAtlanta BravesSome decent BvP numbers in this Atlanta lineup against Pfaadt, who hasn't pitched that well on the road this season, and failed to record a single out in his last start (vs. Washington). He was okay prior to his last start, but reverse splits on the year isn't ideal against this lineup's RH power.
Bailey OberMinnesota TwinsAthleticsTough pitching environment at Sutter Health Park this afternoon, and Ober hasn't been as effective on the road as he has been at home this season. Some risk here, but not completely fading after a decent May (2.76 ERA, 3.07 FIP).
Miles MIkolasSt. Louis CardinalsKansas City RoyalsJac Caglianone is a massive boost to this Kansas City lineup, and Mikolas has allowed just nine earned runs over his last 37.2 IP. However, same story different start for Mikolas, in that a lack of strikeouts reduces his fantasy ceiling.
Grant HolmesAtlanta BravesArizona DiamondbacksHolmes has been quite a surprise for Atlanta and fantasy managers alike this year, and he draws the better side of his home/road splits. However, Arizona has been one of the best offenses all year along against RHP, and over the last two weeks, they have a healthy .176 ISO and .330 wOBA.
Jack LeiterTexas RangersTampa Bay RaysLeiter has been solid over his last couple of starts, but facing the Rays at Steinbrenner Field is a different beast. Leiter's success against LHH should help, as the Rays will load up the lineup with lefties, but not digging this spot all things considered. Last thing: Over the last two weeks, it's the Tampa Bay Rays that lead all of baseball in SLG, OPS, ISO, wOBA, and wRC+.
Slade CecconiCleveland GuardiansNew York YankeesCecconi can miss bats, but home runs have been an issue for him, and now he goes to Yankee Stadium to face a Yankees squad that has the third-best SLG and second-best ISO on the year vs. RHP.
Sean BurkeChicago White SoxDetroit TigersHas been strong against LHH, which is good when facing this Detroit team, but Burke's 4.20 ERA isn't quite in line with his 5.27 FIP and 5.12 SIERA. A lack of strikeout upside reduces any appeal with him in a tough matchup.
Colin ReaChicago CubsWashington NationalsWorking behind Drew Pomeranz today. Has struggled in last couple of starts, and issues with LHH (.520 SLG, .387 wOBA) is not ideal when facing this Washington team.
Landon KnackLos Angeles DodgersNew York MetsA healthy wind is blowing out tonight at Dodger Stadium, and Knack does not induce a bunch of ground balls (34.6 GB%). Righties have crushed Knack this season, to the tune of. a.603 SLG and .403 wOBA, and he's surrendered a 2.25 HR/9 at home this season.
Jake IrvinWashington NationalsChicago CubsThe Cubs have pounded RHP this season, posting top-5 marks in ISO (.183), SLG (.445), wOBA (.340), and wRC+. Oh, Irvin can't get left-handed hitters out, and that's not good when you look at the names in this lineup...
Mitch SpenceAthleticsMinnesota TwinsWill Spence start? Will he go 2 IP? 3 IP? Not looking here regardless.