BetRivers 200 DFS Picks & NASCAR Playbook - Dover, 4/27

The NASCAR Xfinity Series is back in action from Dover International Speedway. Talladega did not disappoint last week. While Austin Hill was in contention all day, and he had the lead with a few laps to go, he did wreck and continues to search for that first Talladega win. But alas, teammate Jesse Love did score his first career Xfinity Series win. The Richard Childress Racing cars will be unstoppable on tracks like Daytona, Talladega, and Atlanta. But Dover may not cater to their strengths this week. Let’s dig into the top NASCAR DFS lineup picks for Saturday’s BetRivers 200 race from Dover!

BetRivers 200 NASCAR DFS Lineup Picks

Dover is one of the few fully concrete tracks on the NASCAR schedule. It is one mile in length with roughly 24 degrees of banking in the turns. There are certainly a few drivers that perform much better on concrete than asphalt and we’ll get to them shortly.

Saturday’s race is set for 200 laps and like most 200-lap Xfinity Series races, the stages will be broken into 45-45-110 lap segments. Lineup construction likely plays out by targeting two-to-three dominator candidates. We have a few drivers offering PD who will be very popular and I expand upon them below. But don’t feel obligated to play the polesitter. Yes, I wrote up Brandon Jones. But in the last three Xfinity Series race at the Monster Mile, the polesitters have led a combined 60 laps here, and Brandon Jones accounted for 59 of them. Below are the practice notes for Saturday’s race in addition to the core plays and driver pool to help you lock in your NASCAR DFS lineups on DraftKings for the BetRivers 200!

BetRivers 200 Practice Notes

Top Price Core Plays

Justin Allgaier ($11,500; Starting P3)

Despite the slow start to the season, we shouldn’t be too surprised that Allgaier is the most expensive driver on the board. Dover is arguably his best track as evidenced by his Driver Averages profile. In his last 10 races here he has a driver rating of at least 105 with a pair of wins, four runner-up results, and a trio of third place finishes. Moreover, in this sample size he’s also led 495 laps. I’m not overly concerned about the practice speeds because he went out and laid down a solid lap in qualifying. Brandon Jones and Riley Herbst strike me as a pair of drivers he can maneuver around with ease.

Ryan Truex ($10,800; Starting P12)

Truex is a part-time driver with Joe Gibbs Racing, but he did pull off a stellar win at Dover last year. It marks his only career win, but it was a special weekend for the Truex family as his brother won the Cup Series race a couple days later. Truex rolls off P12 for this race and carries win equity (obviously) but also a little PD. You likely have to eat the chalk with a particular value play mentioned below but it’s possible to fit both Truex and Allgaier into your builds but that will likely be a popular duo, so keep that in mind. Truex laid down a top 10 single lap in practice, but was third-fastest in 10-lap averages.

A.J. Allmendinger ($10,200; Starting P10)

Several folks will pay down a bit to Sam Mayer ($9,800; Starting P20) for the PD. I’d say that’s fine for cash games but in tournaments we want a ceiling and I think Allmendinger provides that. The car looks sporty, which is something we haven’t said that often regarding Kaulig Racing this year. He put down the third-fastest lap in practice while he was second-fastest in 10-lap averages. Dover has been a fine track for Allmendinger as he finished fourth and sixth respectively in 2021 and 2022 with Kaulig and he grabbed his first top five of the year a couple weeks ago at Texas. Similar to Allgaier, it’s been a sluggish start for Dinger, but he can start to turn the season around this weekend.

Mid-Price Core Plays

Sammy Smith ($8,700; Starting P13)

Smith isn’t completely hopeless for this race, but he’s almost having a similar start to his JRM tenure as Brandon Jones did last year. Jones struggled in his first season away from Joe Gibbs Racing and Smith has as well, but he at least has five top 10 finishes. His practice speed was inside the top 10 so he can potentially move up and score well with a good finish and we don’t even need many dominator points out of him. He started P28 last year in this race and finished sixth and overall, it was a strong day for Joe Gibbs Racing. On top of that, he has a win at Phoenix on his resume. Let’s see if he can find the same speed that Allgaier and Jones did.

Carson Kvapil ($8,300; Starting P26)

Kvapil will be popular, but at the end of the day, I’d be an idiot if I didn’t mention him. Pending an absolute disaster, he’s poised for a solid run and he realistically only needs a top 10 finish to pay off the price tag. And honestly, he may have a top five car. There’s plenty of PD at his disposal and he pays off the price tag with a top 12 but we can get more out of him. He made his Xfinity Series debut with Jr. Motorsports earlier this month and finished fourth at Martinsville. He’s back in the 88-car this weekend and he was fastest in 10-lap averages. You can lock him in for cash games and get plenty of exposure in tournaments.

Brandon Jones ($8,200; Starting P1)

I gave consideration to writing up Corey Heim ($8,000; Starting P22), but he seems like a fairly easy plug & play. But I do wonder if he treats this more as practice/extra track time since he’ll make his Cup Series debut on Sunday subbing in for Erik Jones. So Heim is still a solid PD play but we do have some early dominator potential with Jones. Do we ever feel great about rostering Jones? No, never. But he had the fastest lap in practice and the sixth-fastest 10-lap average. He has the benefit of starting on the pole so early dominator points are in the cards and if he finishes top five, he probably makes the optimal lineup as long as he can maybe get 15-20 dominator points. Dover isn’t a track he typically dominates at, but he has started on the pole here twice before. During his JGR days he led 59 laps in 2022 (finished seventh) and back in 2018 he led 33 laps (finished 10^th). This isn’t a play you need to be super aggressive with, but worth exposure in 15-25% of your lineups.

Value Price Core Plays

Shane Van Gisbergen ($7,200; Starting P31)

SVG wasn’t blowing us away in practice, but he should’ve qualified better. And he’s pretty affordable to where he doesn’t need to have a phenomenal day to pay off the price tag. He hits 5X value if he can just finish 19^th. If he finishes 15^th or better we’re looking at over 6X value. I already wrote up how I like Allmendinger for this race. And sure, it doesn’t necessarily mean SVG will nail the same setup. But he’s already starting at the rear and if he was to make an unapproved adjustment or two then I’d take that as a good sign. And even if he doesn’t, I’d be okay rostering him and hoping for a top 20 finish. It’s been a tough transition in his first full season in NASCAR, but we’ve already seen five 40+ point performances in just a handful of races.

Josh Williams ($6,900; Starting P38)

He starts dead last. Right away we are drawn to him as a play because he can’t get you negative points. You plug and play him easily in cash games. Williams isn’t the greatest driver, but we also know this is a top 20 car at the absolute worst. He doesn’t even need a top 20 to hit value. But it’s never a good thing when Josh Williams is drawing heavy ownership. And yet, the floor is very good and makes him a cash game lock with Carson Kvapil and probably Justin Allgaier. If you find yourself in a position where you need a little salary relief you can pivot to his teammate, Daniel Dye ($6,100; Starting P36), who starts in front of Williams and saves you $800.

Parker Retzlaff ($6,500; Starting P17)

There aren’t many value plays I feel confident so we may have to gamble on some drivers that qualified well. I’ve written up Retzlaff a few times this season. He’s finished 17^th at Dover on two separate occasions so it seems appropriate that he starts P17. After the hot start he got off to at Daytona and Atlanta, he’s failed to finish four of the last seven races. That is part of the quandary we find ourselves in because Jordan Anderson Racing equipment isn’t the most reliable, nor the fastest. But Retzlaff does tend to run better than where he finishes. He had the 11^th-fastest single lap in practice and he was top five in 10-lap average.

Brennan Poole ($5,500; Starting P27)

This might be the cheapest I’m willing to go and it’s not even a slam dunk. Poole is coming off a top five at Talladega and he looked like he could’ve won last week’s race coming down the back stretch. But everybody knows he’s a solid driver even if he can’t quite get the best rides. He rolls off P27 and just needs to move up about five or six spots to hit value. He had some great showings here many years ago when he ran with Chip Ganassi Racing. But we do need to temper expectations as he’s in some bad equipment. But I have faith he has enough talent to possibly grab a top 20. I wouldn’t play him in cash games, but you can certainly pay down in tournaments.

NASCAR DFS Lineup Picks: BetRivers 200