2025 Player Outlook

Gray threw his four-seamer at the lowest rate of his career in 2024 and upped the usage on his cutter (.287 BAA, 30.8% whiff rate). When you combine those numbers with career highs in O-Swing% (31.3%) and SwStr% (13.4%), it’s not as surprising to hear that Gray had the sixth-highest strikeout rate in 2024 amongst starting pitchers with at least 130 IP! His 3.84 ERA is not in line with his 3.12 FIP or 2.82 xFIP, and it’s reasonable to believe that his ERA will be closer to the low-to-mid 3s in 2025. At the same point, I expect a slight regression in his strikeout rate, and this St. Louis offense isn’t as potent as it has been in years past. Gray is still an above-average fantasy starter who should provide fantasy managers with plenty of innings and solid ratios, making him an ideal SP3/SP4.