NBA DFS Playbook: April 28

In the two games since his return, Doncic has been his normal prolific self but we haven’t seen the best he has to offer as a distributor. Doncic has scored 30 and 33 points in the two games while grabbing double digit rebounds in both (10 and 13) to go along with 4.5 assists per game. He is shooting at least 50% from the field in each game and it’s clear that his calf injury is behind him. If Doncic picks up the pace from an assist perspective, then we are really in good shape. 

Paul simply isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. The veteran has a double-double in four of five games so far this postseason and he is coming off a 22-point, 11 assist performance on Tuesday while the Suns did just fine without Devin Booker. However, they will need a similar effort tonight in order to advance in the playoffs, and Paul is very capable of it as he looks for his sixth straight game with double-digit assists. 

It’s getting hard to really trust Harden offensively, but at the price, he has to at least be on your GPP radar. On Monday, Harden attempted just 11 shots and only made four of them as he finished with just 15 points and seven assists. If Harden can repeat his 22-point, 14 assist performances form Game One then we would be in business, but I’m just not sure we can count on it. 

Once again, McCollum attempted more than 20 shots from the field on Tuesday (22) but the problem is that he only made seven of them. With eight rebounds and five assists it was a solid DFS night for the guard and it establishes a solid floor in addition to some upside if McCollum finds some shooting efficiency. 

Even after the return of Doncic, Brunson hasn’t slowed down offensively scoring 23 and 24 points in his last two games. Brunson is shooting at a high volume, and along with about five rebounds and five assists per game, he continues to be a viable DFS option. 

Maxey continues to play a ton for Philadelphia, but he remains nothing more than a GPP option at this point unless he can make more than five of his 14 shots from the field. The problem is that if Maxey isn’t scoring in bunches, he doesn’t do enough else consistently to be relied on from a DFS perspective in cash games. 

When Clarkson is scoring at the level of his last two games, 25 and 20 points, there is a lot to like about the guard. The problem, is that his price has now jumped up by $1,100 from his last game so we are paying for his absolute ceiling. 

The bad news is that Payne only played 12 minutes on Tuesday, but the good news is that he took 10 shots and scored 12 points. Had Payne not wracked up all six of his fouls in that time, it could have been an even better night for the guard. 

Game Five was one to forget for Mitchell but the good news is that things likely can’t get any worse for him tonight after he made just four of 15 shots for nine points. With just two rebounds and one assist, Mitchell was a non-factor but we know he is capable of more than that and there also don’t appear to be any lingering health concerns for the guard heading into tonight’s game. 

With no Fred VanVleet, Toronto leaned more on their existing starters and in fact shortened their rotation as they look to extend their season. Anunoby had a solid game on Monday with 16 points, five rebounds, and four assists and that should continue into tonight. Things would be even better if Anunoby bounced back to the 26 points he scored in Games Two and Three. 

After scoring a combined nine points in the first two games of the postseason, Trent found his offensive footing (not a surprise after what we saw from him in the regular season) and had two straight games of 24 points each before scoring 16 points on Monday. He continues to be more of a one-dimensional option but the volume will be there. 

The playoffs continue to agree with Bullock and he has scored in double figures in four of five games and missed the fifth game by one point while averaging six rebounds per game. Even better, Bullock continues to log heavy minutes for Dallas. 

Shamet is cheap and should play about 25 minutes once again tonight, and the price, we don’t need much offensively for a 5x return other than one or two more field goals. 

After playing 41 minutes out of the starting lineup on Monday, we don’t have to worry about anything with Barnes from a health perspective. The rookie will continue to be one of the biggest beneficiaries of VanVleet’s absence after scoring 12 points along with eight rebounds and four assists on Monday. Barnes has had some big games this year and if Toronto wants to reach Game Seven, they will need another one out of him tonight. 

Now that is how you make up for not having Devin Booker. Bridges played 47 of 48 minutes for the Suns on Tuesday and made good use of his 17 field goal attempts as he made 12 of them for 31 points. After averaging 14.3 points per game in the regular season, Bridges has stepped things up now surpassing that in three of five games this series, and we should see that again tonight. With around five rebounds and a few assists, Bridges has a solid floor and the price only jumped by $300 on DK. 

After scoring between 24 and 26 points in the first three games of the postseason, Bogdanovic scored just 14 points in his last two games. The Jazz would like to forget everything about Game Five and that also goes for Bogdanovic who missed all nine of his field goal attempts. He is simply too good a player for that to continue, and I would look for a bounce back effort tonight. 

I’m not expecting anything too crazy here but there’s no reason why Finney-Smith can’t duplicate his performance from Monday of 13 points, five rebounds, and four assists in 41 minutes. The forward has broken the 40-minute mark in each game this postseason and that will continue tonight.

Johnson only scored eight points on Tuesday but he did play in 37 minutes while adding nine rebounds and five assists. That production gives us a nice floor and we know that Johnson is capable of more on the offensive end. 

Green has benefitted in this series from Matisse Thybulle’s inability to play in Toronto, and that will continue tonight. After averaging just 6.1 points per game in the regular season, Green has surpassed that mark three times in the past four games and that includes 14 points in 25 minutes on Monday. If we combine that with double digit shot attempts, a handful of rebounds and about 30 minutes of playing time, then Green is a solid value option. 

Siakam isn’t going to come cheap tonight, but it is for good reason as he is going to be a large part of Toronto’s game plan as they look to extend their season. He is coming off a 23-point, 10 rebound, seven assist performance, and Siakam has finished in the neighborhood in four of five games this postseason. We can expect Siakam to take around 20 shots again tonight and he has been efficient shooting over 50% in each of the last two games. 

The volume is there for Harris and that actually gives him a little bit of upside at the price. Harris only made six of 16 shots from the field on Monday but he still had a solid night with 16 points, seven rebounds, and four assists. As Philadelphia struggles somewhat offensively, Harris should continue to be solid option with three games of double-digit rebounds so far this postseason. 

Is Young going to play the 30 minutes he did in Game Four or the 16 minutes he did in Game Five? The difference is pretty substantial as Young went from scoring 13 points with five rebounds and five assists to three points, three rebounds, and three assists. This is GPP only as we can’t count on the playing time but he should with Toronto shorthanded. 

Boucher always leaves us wanting more and we saw the best of what he is capable of earlier in the series when he scored 17 points and grabbed eight rebounds in 30 minutes of action. Aside from that, we can expect Boucher to play closer to 20 minutes and finish closer to the 9.4 points and 6.1 rebounds that he averaged this season. 

Embiid carried us through the regular season as one of the better options regardless of positions, but it is now clear that a torn thumb ligament is limiting him. While Embiid is too good to completely count out, this is a GPP only option for me tonight after averaging “just” 20.5 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists in his last two games. 

Ayton continues to flirt with a double-double on a nightly basis and through the first five games of the postseason, he is averaging 20.2 points and 10.4 rebounds per game. There is nothing here to suggest that anything will change for Ayton, and if anything, there is a little room for upside here. 

Tonight, he goes for his fifth double-double of the postseason, out of six games, as Valanciunas continues to be a dual threat. At 15.4 points and 15.6 rebounds per game, it’s hard to argue with what we are seeing out of Valanciunas and that should continue tonight. 

Achiuwa is one of the few reserves that Toronto is leaning on as of late and that gives us an opportunity to find some value. On Monday, that translated into 17 points and seven rebounds in 27 minutes as he also blocked three shots, and I’m perfectly fine looking for a repeat of that performance. 

McGee took a big step back on Tuesday as he scored just two points in nine minutes of action after three straight games of double-digit scoring. The price is ripe to hunt for a repeat if you need the salary relief.