NBA DFS Playbook: April 26

It’s now a best of three in what has been an up and down series for both teams as Morant looks to rebound offensively tonight. Morant has been struggling with his shooting over the last two games and he shot made just four of 13 shots from the field in Game Four while only getting to the free throw line three times. The good news is that Morant picked up 15 assists for his third straight double-digit game while also adding eight rebounds and that continues to make him a top option. 

As Atlanta looks to hold off elimination, they are going to need a big from Young, and I’m sure whether or not we will get it offensively. After a rough start to the series, Young had two strong offensive games before scoring just nine points on Sunday as the Hawks were blown out. This remains to be a GPP only option as Young has also failed to hand out more than eight assists this postseason. 

We know that Paul got score in the postseason, so I’m willing to look past his four points on Sunday. With Devin Booker sidelined, the emphasis is even more strongly on Paul’s offense, and the good news is that he still finished with 11 assists despite the lack of offense. After scoring 28 points in Game Three, I expect him to bounce back tonight. 

When it comes to McCollum, you know he is going to get the shots, the question is how efficient he is with them. On Sunday, the answer was not very as he made just eight of 21 shots from the field while only handing out two assists. After finishing with between 48 and 52.5 DK points in each of three previous games I’m willing to chalk it up as an isolated incident as New Orleans continues to need the best of what McCollum has to offer. 

After taking 22 shots, and making 10, in Game Three, Herro followed that up by making just one of eight shots from the field on Sunday. With Kyle Lowry out tonight, the opportunity for an increased role out of Herro does make him a GPP option, but his minutes have been up and down to begin the series. But with Jimmy Butler out tonight, throw any concerns out the window about volume here. 

It shouldn’t come as a surprise that Beverley’s minutes have increased in each game so far this postseason, and that culminated with him playing 37 minutes on Saturday. Beverley scored 17 points to go along with five assists and two rebounds as he continues to hover around the 5x mark. 

With Kyle Lowry sidelined, I’m willing to take a GPP shot on Oladipo based on the price after he played 23 minutes in his 2022 postseason debut on Sunday. Oladipo only made three of 10 shots while working off the rust, but he also made up for it with eight rebounds and four assists. We know that Oladipo can score, and Miami will lean on him tonight, and especially more so now with Butler missing the game. 

Jones isn’t going to jump off the page at anyone, but there is something to be said for consistency as the point guard has scored in double figures in each of his last three games while averaging just over three assists and four rebounds per game. A 5x return is reasonable here if you need the salary cap fit. 

After getting the start on Sunday, Vincent didn’t do too much to distinguish himself, but at the same time no one is going to argue with close a 6x return. While Vincent’s price did jump $700k on DK, it’s still very manageable after he scored 11 points to go along with four rebounds and three assists. I would expect a similar role tonight. 

Payne hasn’t done much this postseason, but that should change tonight with Booker’s injury. We know that Payne can score and has taken advantage of the opportunity in the past, and tonight Payne is priced as a reserve playing 15 to 20 minutes a game in a supporting role. 

We have three straight games of 30-plus points out of Ingram as he is doing everything he can to keep New Orleans competitive. Ingram is also averaging just over seven rebounds and five assists per game in that stretch while taking about 20 shots a game. Since his first offensive outburst, we have seen Ingram’s price jump pretty substantially, but if he keeps scoring at this pace it could be worth it. 

There doesn’t appear to be any concern with Edwards’ leg injury as he returned to action on Saturday as he continues to be a top scoring option for Minnesota. The problem though, is that Edwards hasn’t flashed the same upside he did in Game One, but he’s still a solid option. 

I don’t know if we can count on Bane to make 11 of 18 shots from the field again on Saturday but he consistently has been busy offensively for Memphis continuing the scoring momentum he began in the regular season. Bane will continue to be involved on the offensive end as there is no questioning his role. 

After two strong offensive performances, Bogdanovic took a step back on Sunday as he scored just four points in 21 minutes of action. It was a forgettable day for Atlanta as a whole, and if they want to keep on playing basketball this season, things have to get better and that means Bogdanovic should get back to what we are accustomed to. 

Brooks scored 24 points on Saturday for the second time this postseason, and while might not take 20 shots again, closer to 15 is a reasonable possibility. The key here, is that Brooks just needs to hit those shots as the majority of his production does come from what he does offensively. 

Take what we have said across the board with other Atlanta offensive players, and apply it here with Huerter. Chances are that Huerter will shoot better than one of seven from the field tonight as Atlanta looks to live to play another day. 

It shouldn’t be surprising that Strus played the most minutes of the postseason on Sunday (36) and had a solid, and typical, performance with 12 points, five rebounds, and three assists. Strus will continue to benefit from Lowry, and now Butler, being sidelined. 

Regardless of how many minutes Shamet plays, we haven’t seen him truly explode offensively from a volume standpoint. With that being said, he is worth a look as the Suns will have to lean on him a little more heavily in the backcourt without Booker. 

We don’t have to worry about minutes with Bridges, but his offensive game has been uneven to this point. On Sunday, Bridges only made four of 11 shots from the field for eight points but he did round out his performance with six rebounds and five assists which does give us a nice floor.

I know it has been a continuous theme for tonight, but Crowder should stand to benefit from Booker’s absence. It might be slight in nature, but Crowder did score in double figures for the second straight game on Sunday while rounding out his line with five rebounds and five assists. 

Jones might not wow anyone, but he has played between 35 and 41 minutes in his last three games and it’s hard to miss the sub-$5k price on DK. We can’t chase the 30 DK points Jones put up on Sunday as he likely won’t block three shots again, but he did score in double figures for the third straight game. Regardless, Jones should still settle in around the 5x mark. 

If anyone will benefit from Booker being out on the offensive side, it should be Johnson. The problem, is that we haven’t seen it yet as Johnson made just four of 12 shots from the field on Sunday for 13 points. 

Hunter was the one bright spot for Atlanta on Sunday as he scored 24 points on nine of 13 shooting. The forward continues to be a large part of the Hawks’ offense, and I don’t expect that to change tonight. 

It has been a steady rise for Clarke this postseason, which for now, has culminated in him playing 29 minutes in each of the last two games. He has scored in double figures in each of his four games to this point and on Saturday he came through with 15 points, five rebounds, and four assists in what you could say is his new baseline. While he certainly has gotten more expensive over the last four games, Clarke is still at 5x value and the position is thin. 

There doesn’t appear to be any reason for us to worry about Tucker’s questionable status as the veteran continues to log substantial minutes this postseason. Tucker has hit double figures in three of his four games and is averaging 11 points and 6.5 rebounds per game against Atlanta. 

With the return of Clint Capela, Gallinari has seen his playing time reduced as he has been pushed to the bench. It has been an up and down series for the forward, but at his price point, you still can do worse as he still finished with nine points and seven rebounds in just 15 minutes on Sunday. If you are pleased with the rest of your team, Gallinari works to round out your squad. 

After being non-existent in the first two games of the postseason, Vanderbilt has averaged 11 points and 10.5 rebounds in 33.5 minutes over the last two games. At this point, that is all we have to go on, and it works as a value option if you want to chase a third straight game at similar performance. 

After double-digit scoring in the first two games against Phoenix, Nance has scored just a combined eight points in his last two games. The playing has still been there though, and in Game Three Nance did take eight shots with the problem being that he only made one. Nance is still hitting the boards and picking up a few assists, so the forward still finished with a 5x return on Sunday. 

After taking a combined 15 free throws in his first three games against Memphis, Towns followed that up with 17 free throw attempts on Saturday. The center made 14 of them on his way to a 33-point, 14 rebound performance which was his third game out of four with double digit rebounds. It was a far cry from his disappearing act in Game Three, and this is the version of Towns that Minnesota will need once again tonight. 

Ayton has picked up the offense in the last two games with 28 and 23 points, and I expect him to continue at that level with Phoenix looking to make up for Booker’s offense. While he will hover around 10 rebounds on most nights, Ayton generally doesn’t pop over that which does limit his upside but still allows him to be a solid option. 

In the postseason, the microscope is really on every performance, but Valanciunas picked a good time for his best effort of the postseason on Sunday as New Orleans tied up the series. The center got going offensively as he scored 26 points on nine of 15 shooting but he didn’t slow down on the boards either while grabbing 15 rebounds. Both performances do surpass his season averages, but not to the level that I feel we are truly chasing a repeat if the offensive volume is still there. 

Despite limited playing time this postseason, McGee has managed to reach double figures in each of his last three games and he is averaging 11.5 points per game along with just over four rebounds. While it might not move the needle, it does provide a cheap option. 

Adebayo has been limited offensively averaging just 10.5 points per game this series, but I would expect his role to increase tonight with Butler sidelined. The center is a late addition to the playbook as Miami looks to eliminate Atlanta tonight without their best player.