NBA DFS Playbook: April 19

The playoff stage wasn’t too big for Morant as he kicked things off on Saturday with 32 points, eight assists, and four rebounds. Morant was pedestrian from the field as he made 8-of-18 shots from the field but it was his ability to get to the free throw line that really stood out as he was 16-of-20 from the line. Until we see otherwise, I’m thinking this is going to be close to the baseline for Morant. 

We know that Miami defends opposing point guards quite well, but things really were rough for Young on Sunday. If he doesn’t turn things around, it will be an early exit for Atlanta as they need a lot more from their super star than a 1-of-12 shooting day from the field along with just four assists. Based on the volume and skill set, I still have Young included, but it is just GPP only. 

The Suns were able to control the game from the start, but then they needed Booker and company to finish off on a high note as the Pelicans worked their way back. We got 25 points and eight assists out of Booker, and while he might lack for much upside on top of that, it’s a pretty high floor. 

Talk about a monster game from the veteran. Paul came to the postseason ready to play and that was very much evident on Sunday. Not only did he help to get Phoenix out to a big league, but Paul played a large part in the Suns securing the victory with 30 points, 10 assists, and seven rebounds. While Paul’s price did jump on DK, it’s still not incredibly prohibitive. 

We knew that McCollum was going to busy this postseason and that was evident in Game 1 as he took 25 shots. The problem is that McCollum only made nine of them, but he still found his way to 25 points while adding in eight rebounds and six assists. McCollum will have a similar workload tonight, and there is a good chance that he makes a few more of them tonight.

The game was never truly in doubt for Miami on Sunday, but it’s possible the Hawks make things a little more difficult tonight. Lowry didn’t much to stand out in 29 minutes, but with 10 points and nine assists, we did get a solid performance from the veteran. There is plenty of playoff experience from Lowry, and Miami will rely on him to lead the charge once again. 

Beverley is perfectly suited for playoff ball, and at this price point, he doesn’t need to do too much in order to get us where we need to be. On Saturday, he filled up the stat sheet in 31 minutes of action with 10 points, six rebounds, and six assists and his defense will once again keep him on the court tonight. In the playoffs, Beverley also counts as a value option. 

As the regular season concluded, we saw Edwards really come into his own offensively and that continued to begin the playoffs. Edwards went off for 36 points while also handing out six assists and, at least for one night, it was clear where the offensive focus was for Minnesota. 

From an efficiency standpoint, Ingram took a step back on Sunday as he made just 6-of-17 shots from the field for 18 points. Ingram did contribute five rebounds and four assists, but we really need the offense from him for DFS perspective and the variability means this is GPP only. 

Bane took 16 shots to begin the playoffs and volume puts him on my GPP radar. The problem Saturday is that Bane only made six of those shots and the majority of DFS production does come from what he does offensively. 

It looks like there will be a lot of offense between Memphis and Minnesota and Beasley had a lot to do with it Saturday and that should continue to be the case. Beasley scored 23 points in 30 minutes and seeing him score in bunches shouldn’t come as a complete surprise. 

Strus has carved out a nice role for himself off Miami’s bench, and he scored nine points in 25 minutes on Sunday. At the price, all Strus needs to do is make a few shots and he should hit 5x in value. 

Miami won easily and Butler had a solid game, but it just doesn’t move the needle as far as GPP upside goes. While Butler can do better than the 21 points he scored on Sunday to go along with six rebounds and four assists, I wouldn’t bet on it. 

Bridges had another typical game to begin the playoffs, and at 38 minutes of playing time, he has plenty of time to rack up production. Figuring a 5x baseline, Bridges scored 11 points to go along with five rebounds, three assists, and two blocks on Sunday, and there’s nothing to suggest a repeat isn’t possible. 

Hunter scored in double figures for the fourth straight game on Sunday but he wasn’t super busy offensively attempting just eight shots. The good news is that Hunter made six of those shots and I expect him to have a major role once again tonight after playing 35 minutes on Sunday.

As the Suns shorten their rotation, Johnson’s minutes are down to the lower 20’s, but he remains a solid scoring option off the bench as the forward still finished with 13 points. Scoring generally isn’t a problem for Johnson, but he doesn’t do enough of anything else to provide a solid floor. 

Jones played 31 minutes on Sunday but all he had to show for it was five points and three rebounds. The forward did take eight shots, but he only made two of them, and the only value here is chasing the minutes and hoping we get more production of it. 

To say that the shot was working for Robinson would be an understatement on Sunday as he made 8-of-9 shots from three-point land. The quantity of shots could potentially be there again for Robinson, but it’s hard to truly trust a repeat performance even if he is capable of it.

McDaniels’ offensive output has fluctuated on a game-to-game basis, but tonight we are chasing his 15-point, seven-rebound effort from Saturday. The main takeaway for me is the fact that we should get another 25 minutes of playing time tonight and that is hard to come by in the playoffs at this price.

At this price, Murphy doesn’t have to do much to hit a 5x to 6x return, and that works on a short slate. The fact that he played 26 minutes on Sunday doesn’t hurt but we would like more than six points, four rebounds, and two assists. 

It would be nice, but we can’t count on Jackson blocking seven shots again tonight like he did on Sunday. The fact that he did it in 24 minutes is impressive, but we do need Jackson to make more than four of his 13 shot attempts. 

Atlanta took things slow with Collins in his return as he played just 21 minutes but I would expect to see an uptick in volume in tonight. With 10 points and four assists, Collins had a solid performance but the Hawks are going to need more from him. 

Gallinari had another nice performance offensively as he scored 17 points to go along with five rebounds. I would expect the Hawks’ forward to continue being a strong secondary option as Trae Young appears to need all the help he can get. 

The playoffs are all about performance and Clarke earned every minute of playing time he got and then some. If he keeps on producing like he did on Saturday, 13 points and 12 rebounds, Clarke should continue to earn additional minutes. 

Nance scored 14 points for the second straight game as he was a reliable option off the bench for the Pelicans. This time, Nance only grabbed six rebounds but his price remained unchanged and that puts him squarely on the radar as a value option. 

Tucker is made for the playoffs based on the style of basketball he plays and that led to a 16-point, five-rebound performance in 24 minutes to begin the series on Sunday. It appears that there is a calf injury to at least be aware of, but I don’t expect it to limit Tucker tonight even if we do see a slight drop in offensive output. 

Minnesota is going to need a big effort out of Towns and they got it on Saturday as the center scored 29 points while grabbing 13 rebounds. I don’t see him encountering too much resistance against Memphis and the Timberwolves will continue to feature him, so a similar performance should be on its way tonight as Towns will also benefit from the work Anthony Edwards is doing offensively. 

The Miami center only took five shots, making just one, in 28 minutes on Sunday and that was a pretty tough snowflake to handle for those that used him. Per the injury report, Adebayo is dealing with a bruised quad, and while it doesn’t appear to be anything that will limit him, his Game 1 stat line (he added six rebounds and five assists) does generate some concern. 

As per usual, Valanciunas graced us with another double-double, but the center did so in a big way. His 18 points aren’t especially surprising, but he generally doesn’t take 21 shots from the field so it will be intriguing to see if that volume continues although to some degree, we would be chasing it. From a value perspective, that came from the 25 rebounds that Valanciunas pulled down and while he’ll finish in double digits once again, it’s hard to expect a repeat; especially of the 13 that came on the offensive end. 

There is something safe about just plugging Ayton in here as he is priced fairly and should be able to cruise to a 5x-6x return tonight after he went for 21 points, nine rebounds, and four blocks to kick off the postseason. 

Adams struggled on Saturday as he was held scoreless in 24 minutes of action. I’m not sure if it is more or less troubling that he didn’t even take a shot, but his limited offensive production generally isn’t part of the game plan. The Memphis center added just three rebounds and three assists and he really is only an option if you are backed into a corner from an eligibility and price perspective in a GPP lineup.