NBA DFS Playbook: November 24

In a tough spot against the Wizards the other night we saw Ball have another ceiling game and over the last three games we have seen Ball go for 62.75, 51.25 and 60.75 DK points. The Magic are among the worst teams per defensive rating. 

Under $10,000 Ja Morant is pretty appealing. He has gone for at least 44 FP in seven of the last eight which includes five 50+ FP performances. This is a pace down spot for Memphis but both teams rank in the bottom 10 of defensive efficiency. 

It feels great seeing Murray put forth these types of performances because we have touted this player going on three-plus seasons as someone who just needed to be given the playing time. Over the last four games Murray is averaging 51.1. Atlanta is among the worst defensive teams in the league and when there are 13 game on a slate  you want to just find these types of optimal matchups to take advantage of. 

Paul went for 43 FP in the first matchup between these two teams and while his recent performances have been up and down, he also flashed his ceiling, going for 51 FP against the Mavs. The Cavs are another team that struggles defensively, and this is a matchup Paul can exploit at a great price.

Memphis ranks last in defensive efficiency and this is a pace up spot for the Raptors. FVV can be a bit frustrating at times because he has a 50+ FP ceiling which we saw little over a week ago and then there are games like against the Kings where he goes for just 27 FP. This game has a nice 220.5 game total with just a three-point spread.

So, we don't know yet if Tobias Harris will be active or not and that only really matters in the sense of how competitive the Sixers will be tonight against the Warriors who are 10.5-point favorites. Maxey has been a fantastic play all season but we have to wonder if this one gets out of hand if he will play the 35 minutes we are hoping for. He is a GPP only play tonight.

IF Jaylen Brown is out tonight then I love me some Marcus Smart in all formats. With Brown out of the lineup for the past few weeks we saw some ceiling games out of Smart and he was pretty routinely going for 30+ fantasy points. IF Brown does play, then I still think Smart can be looked at but the ceiling is certainly lower.

Beverley is averaging 26.8 FP over the last six games while playing close to 30-minutes a night. He is a better play on FD and Yahoo where you get the extra point for blocks and steals but the price point on DK is very difficult to ignore. I like him more for cash games because of the matchup against Miami.

As long as he continues to be in the starting lineup then we can take some stabs with Joseph who has gone for at least 20 FP over the last four games while playing over 30 minutes in each.

Listen, you can certainly pay up at shooting guard if you want. Bradley Beal is fine and so is Devin Booker but I just want to spend up elsewhere on this slate. Herro played last night and had another ceiling game, scoring 31 points with eight rebounds and three assists. The back-to-back is a slight concern but Herro has shown capable of being productive on back-to-backs already this season. We may also see someone like Kyle Lowry or Jimmy Butler sit out as Miami will tend to rest their veteran players in this scenarios. 

SGA has already been ruled out and while this is a tough matchup for OKC, being 12.5-point underdogs at home, I still think we get 30+ minutes out of Giddey here and he is really starting to get more comfortable with NBA play. Over the last four games he is averaging 14.5 points, 9.8 rebounds and 4.3 assists per game. With SGA out the other night we got eight assist to go with the seven boards and 15 points. He is a player that will fill up the stat sheet and with the Thunder in a rebuild he should get plenty of oppurtunity. 

Tough game last time out for Trent as he shot just 3-for-16 from the floor against the Warriors but prior to that Trent has been nails. Now, OG Anunoby could return today and Trent has largely been a great play when the Raptors were down a starting five member but I just like this matchup for Trent tonight against the worst defensive team in the NBA at this price point.

We wondered how Hield would be impacted by the coaching change and after one game its looking like a positive. Alvin Gentry gave Hield a ton of run here and he was even on the floor to close the game. Portland is playing the second game of a back-to-back and on the season they are allowing the second highest three-point percentage to opposing teams.

If Dillon Brooks is out again then we run right back to Bane who took a tough matchup against the Jazz the other night in Utah and went off for 28 points, four rebounds, four assists and two steals while shooting 12-of-20 from the floor. Now, in a better matchup, he could be looked upon to provide that level of offense once again. 

I've had him in my value vault for two straight slates and each one he went off. The price tag is up but Cole Anthony is going to miss his third straight game tonight. While Hampton has yet to crack the starting lineup, he is playing 30 minutes in these games and has gone for 35.5 and 42.25 DK points. 

Will continue to be in the starting lineup with Joe Harris and Bruce Brown out for the Nets. Mills has been a great source of scoring for the Nets this season, and over the last five games he has gone for 17 or more actual points in four of those contests.

Not quite sure why my man is still so cheap but here we are. Huerter is starting for the Hawks and averaging 24.4 FP over the last five games. Over the last three games he has gone for 29, 27 and 33 FP which would be 6x-7x return on tonight's price tag.

There are certain matchups where I don't mind the pay up for Durant and this would be one of those. The game tonight has a nice 216 total with just a one-point spread. Competitive environments allow for these top end players to reach their ceilings more often than not. 

With news that Anthony Davis is unlikely to play tonight we need to take a harder look at LeBron as he returns from his one game suspension to face the Pacers. With AD off the floor this season James has a 28.4% usage rate while averaging 1.38 FP/Min.

Assuming he plays with this being the second night of a back-to-back I love me some Jimmy Buckets in this spot against the Timberwolves. As we discussed on the podcast, Butler HATED his time in Minnesota and forced his way out of the organization. He also had major beef with Karl Anthony Towns and if you are wondering if he is over it or not you can just look at last year's numbers against Minnesota where he averaged 27.5 points, 9.0 rebounds, 7.0 assists and 4.0 steals per game.

Little price drop for Bridges here after he has a floor game, scoring just 16 FP against the Wizards which is generally a tough matchup. Now he draws a much favorable spot against the Magic who are among the worst defensive teams and are allowing the fourth most rebounds to opponents per game this season.

Even with Brandon Ingram back we are still seeing Josh Hart being very productive, going for at least 26 DK points in eight of the last 10 games with six of those eight games going for at least 30 FP which would be 5x return on today's price. Over the last five games he has gone for at least 36 FP in four of those games which would be 6x return. You get the point.

No SGA so the shots will be there for Dort here once again. I pause a little bit on his FD price tag but on DK I am willing to run it back at just $5,100. The matchup certainly isn't great but at least the Thunder are home and not playing in Utah. We should also take solace in the fact that Dort played 30 minutes in a game the Thunder lost by double-digits. 

He was supposed to be limited and then went and played 31 minutes and scored 22 points with eight rebounds, one block and one assist. Fool us once shame on you, fool us twice then shame on us. I am going to assume he plays over 30-minutes again tonight and at this price I am expecting him to be pretty popular even if the matchup against the Suns is a tough one. The Cavs are just lacking overall depth right now and there should be a ton of usage going his way, especially if Garland is also ruled out.

So, Doug McDermott may be playing today which will throw a wrench back into the Spurs rotation but Vassell has been seeing some extended run here for a few weeks and he has been pretty good when given that playing time. The matchup against the Hawks is a favorable one and while it is a pain in the ass trying to trust the Spurs rotation, this is one play I am willing to plug in and hope that it works out, especially on Yahoo where he is just $1 above min-price.

The Magic played two straight games against the Bucks and in those games Wagner saw his playing time significantly cut. I am going to think that this was more game flow and matchup based than the fact that Orlando is all of a sudden not going to play this kid they drafted with the eighth overall pick. The price drop here on DK is very tempting on this small slate.

The Sixers are not expected to be overly competitive in this game but Thybulle is someone that should continue to see regular minutes in this rotation and likely get the extended run should this one become a blowout. He is a better play on Yahoo and DraftKings tonight at the near min salary price points.

I will never tell you not to play Giannis but these past two games against the Magic are exactly the risk you take in games where the Bucks are big favorites. The first game we saw the Magic stay surprisingly competitive and Giannis had a ceiling game. The second game was a blowout and Giannis scored only 41 FP as he played just 23 minutes. In this spot against the Pistons earlier this year we saw Giannis play just 29 minutes but still managed a 60 FP performance. The Bucks are again big favorites and at home. Just know there is a risk he will see less than 30 minutes here once again.

This is a good price for Siakam, actually lower on DK than the previous two slates. Not to be overly repetitive here but the Grizzlies are bad defensively. This game has a high game total. The only variable is the possible return of OG Anunoby. That said, I like the matchup here for Siakam in a pace up environment. 

The defensive stats are what is sticking out to me right now. Collins has eight blocks over the last two games and over the last five games he is averaging 2.4 blocks and 1.0 steals per contest. The Spurs could be running out Doug McDermott at power forward tonight which is a matchup that Collins should feast on.

I talked on the podcast how sad it was that the ceiling game I have been predicting all season for Jackson came in a spot that nobody would have played him as he goes for 46 FP IN Utah. The matchup tonight is SO much better for Jackson as the Grizzlies face a Raptors team playing their seventh straight road game.

I don't really understand why he got a price drop outside of the algos overreacting to the Magic's last two games against the Bucks. Carter went for 20 points and 10 boards in this first matchup, finishing with 39.5 fantasy points. We like using front court players against Charlotte and he should certainly be in consideration.

Which version of Keldon Johnson shows up tonight? Is it the guy who went for 24 points and six boards against the Lakers or the guy that went for eight points and five boards against the Suns? We know Johnson has a high ceiling because we have seen it but the man is frustratingly inconsistent. The matchup against Atlanta is a solid one but use at your own risk.

Anthony likely moves into the starting lineup with Anthony Davis expected not to play in tonight's contest. We know he is still a bucket when he gets hot and LBJ is a great facilitator. 

Blowout loss to the Celtics limited the minutes and though Chicago isn't a great matchup either, I do like the price here given his ability to fill out the stat sheet. He is a GPP only play with hopes that Houston stays competitive for a bit longer than they did against Boston.

Another dart throw GPP play. Vanderbilt is a foul happy player but when he can stay on the floor he can also fill up the stat sheet. I doubt anyone goes here and I like him more on Yahoo at $13 than anywhere else.

Johnson has played over 23 minutes in three straight games including 29 minutes the other night against Cleveland. With Joe Harris and Bruce Brown out of the lineup it looks like they have shifted Kevin Durant to small forward with James Johnson playing power forward during some of the rotations. Johnson is an interesting play because he can fill up the stat sheet and he is also a good passer as well as evidenced by his 13 assists over this three game span.

This matchup for both centers is pretty elite. Ayton is playing some of his best basketball right now and the price tag is just barely moving on him. Jarrett Allen is not a great defender so I'd look for another double-double from Ayton tonight.

Everything I just said about Ayton can be copy and pasted right here. Allen is a great offensive player and rebounder and Ayton is not a good defender. It's possible that these two cancel one another out but I'd bet they both come out of this with 20/10 games.

Centers against Charlotte has been a top play in DFS for almost as long as I have worked for Fantasy Alarm which is going on close to a decade. Bamba notched a double-double against the Hornets in their first meeting, going for 37 FP.

Another player that was supposed to be limited and then played over 30 minutes. If Poetlt is back to playing 30+ minutes then he is my favorite center on tonight's slate given the price tag. This was a guy priced up to and over $7,000 this season before he caught Covid-19. He went for 15 points ,nine rebounds and two assists against the Suns and is somehow cheaper on this slate against Atlanta. I know Clint Capela is a matchup that worry some but he shouldn't put any pressure on Poeltl on the defensive end.

I won't ever forgive Steve Nash for what he did against the Warriors when he decided to sit LMA for most of the game without telling anyone that was his intention. Since that game LMA has gone for 37, 24 and 38 FP while playing over 30 minutes in two of those three contests. He should see 30 minutes tonight in a competitive game against Boston. That said, this is a tough matchup but a healthy Al Horford and Robert Williams in the lineup tonight.

With Anthony Davis unlikely to play we likely see DeAndre Jordan get some good minutes tonight at the center position. I also expect Dwight Howard to get run as well. Whomever starts is the direction I would lean here. 

With Robert Williams just being ruled out we have to take a look at Horford in cash games. We love going at this Nets front court and with Horford out there is a bit more clarity to this position with Williams out of the lineup.