NFL DFS Watch List: Week 16

The Vikings are routinely playing these close games regardless of how good or bad their opponent is, simply because their defense continues to cough up points. Prior to last week's game against the Bears, who couldn't seem to get our of their own way, Minnesota had given up and average of 29 points per game over their previous six. As a result, the Vikings are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position and are going to have a very tough time containing Stafford and the arsenal of weapons at his disposal, especially with the groove he's in right now, averaging 282 passing yards with an 11:2 TD:INT over his last four games.

Clearly we've found a quarterback just as selfish as Cam Newton and DFS players are going to have to take advantage of it. Hurts came out of the Eagles' bye week on the hot seat and he delivered in style, throwing for almost 300 yards with a score while running in two more on his own. He did struggle against the Giants a few weeks ago, but he was also trying to play through an ankle injury at the time. If he has truly righted the ship, then he should be a strong play this week as his rushing ability (and selfishness at the goal line) keeps him in the discussion for cash games. 

After three-straight games with at least 230 passing yards and two touchdowns, Wilson took a step backwards Tuesday when the Rams limited him to just 156 yards and no touchdowns. We fully expect him to bounce back this week against the Bears who are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position and continue to struggle with injuries and COVID cases on defense. Wilson should also have his top weapon, Tyler Lockett, back on the field for this match-up. 

We'll have to monitor the situation closely as Goff just tested positive for COVID on Monday, but still has the chance to play if he remains asymptomatic and posts a negative test before Sunday. We'd hate to have to pivot to Tim Boyle after Goff has thrown for three touchdowns in tow of his last three games, but we may still if he's not ready. The Falcons are allowing 246.6 passing yards per game with 27 touchdowns through the air and opposing quarterbacks have posted an impressive 101.5 passer rating against them.

On the other side of the Lions/Falcons game is Matt Ryan who continues to struggle, but has such a tasty match-up here against the Lions that we may be able to use him at this discounted price. Detroit is allowing nearly 250 passing yards per game with 23 passing touchdowns allowed and are probably getting a little too overconfident after notching their second win of the season. Ryan is a longshot for cash games, but there is still some GPP upside given the opponent.

We got some mixed reports regarding Ekeler's status after he missed practice on Monday when Chargers beat writer Daniel Popper from The Athletic said the running back was headed to the reserve/COVID list. However, when the team placed seven players on the list later in the day, Ekeler was not among them. We'll see what the practice reports say during the week here, but, obviously, this match-up against the Texans is way to good to ignore. If Ekeler is out for any reason, we will still be able to pivot to his back-up, Justin Jackson. 

Another no-brainer match-up here as the Lions are allowing 133 rushing yards per game with 15 rushing touchdowns on the season and they rank dead-last in DVOA against running back pass-plays. While last week was a bust for Patterson, he's been one of the most productive players in the NFL this season and it came from virtually out of nowhere. If you told me back in August that Patterson would have over 1,000 yards from scrimmage and 10 touchdowns this season, I would have laughed my ass off. Now, I'm dying to get him into my DFS lineups. He'll be chalky for sure, this week and there won't be anything wrong with that.

No Urban Meyer? No problem. Robinson carried the ball 18 times for 75 yards and a touchdown in the first game since the coach was fired and now we're getting an even tastier match-up here against the Jets, the only run defense worse than that of the Texans. The Jets are allowing 142 rushing yards per game with a league-high 26 rushing touchdowns allowed. He'll be super-chalky once again, but so long as he's getting the touches, we'll lock him into our cash game lineups. 

Finally, the Miles Sanders we all thought we were getting back in the preseason! The Eagles running back is now coming off back-to-back 100-yard efforts and he's added in five catches for 37 yards as well. The receiving work may not be the richest numbers in the world, but we'll take whatever we can get when his quarterback keeps stealing all the touchdown glory. It's another soft match-up for Sanders here as the Giants are allowing 125 rushing yards per game and have given up 11 rushing touchdowns as well. If this volume continues, we'll keep using him.

The Raiders continue to be a run-funnel defense and they're allowing 123 rushing yards per game with 15 rushing touchdowns on the year. Nick Chubb rushed for 91 and a score against them last week and he should have gone over 100 and had a second touchdown if not for some bogus penalty and the week before that the Chiefs backfield gouged them for 132 yards and three touchdowns. So now you're giving me Williams against them this week? Yes, please! Melvin Gordon is likely in-play here as well, but we'll focus on Williams who just keeps getting better and better as the year progresses.

You don't really need me to break this down for you, do you? It's all a matter of what you can and can't afford in your lineups this week.

After missing Week 14, Allen returned and dominated once again with six catches for 78 yards and a touchdown on a team-leading 10 targets against the Chiefs. This week, it's Houston and while the Texans are typically beaten on the ground, Allen is Justin Herbert's security blanket and he will always see a heavy target share. He's got three touchdowns in his last two games, so look for him to try and finish strong here.

This is a fantastic match-up for Evans this week as Antonio Brown returns and that means the Panthers aren't going to be able to have Stephon Gilmore shadowing anyone. Bruce Arians will move his receivers around enough to get some favorable match-ups rolling and Evans will use all of his physical advantages to dominate in this passing attack. He could very well be a lock for our cash games this week. If the hamstring problem truly is serious, not sure we pivot to AB since Gilmore will most likely shadow him.

Lockett still needs official clearance from the reserve/COVID list, but we expect that to come in the next day or so as he looks to return to practice. It's clear that there is still a disconnect between Russell Wilson and DK Metcalf, as Wilson fed him 12 targets and he managed just six catches and zero trips to the end zone. With Lockett returning, Wilson should thrive, especially against this Bears defense that is allowing the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position.

The Ravens should get some of their secondary back from the reserve/COVID list, but Marlon Humphrey is still on IR and that should keep things nice and open for Higgins. The Ravens rank 30th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 2 receiver and while Ja'Marr Chase gets the glory, Higgins is the one with three 100-yard efforts and two touchdowns in his last four games. Expect Joe Burrow to continue leaning on him.

With three-straight games of double-digit targets, St. Brown has blossomed into quite the receiving threat right now and has forged a fantastic on-field rapport with Jared Goff. This match-up against Atlanta is too good to pass up, however, we do have to keep a watchful eye on Goff's status for the game. He was just added to the reserve/COVID list on Monday and if he is out, we are going to have to make a pivot away from him.

It's been four games since Mooney has found the end zone and in two of the last three, he's failed to clear 30 receiving yards. But this is obviously not his fault as Justin Fields has not performed well as we would have hoped. Perhaps this week against Seattle is different and Mooney can break out once again. The Seahawks have given up 274 passing yards per game this season and that comes with 20 touchdowns through the air. If the offensive line can offer some protection, Fields should be fine and that should make Mooney a strong play this week.

Gage has been developing quite nicely this season and has one 100-yard effort and two touchdowns over his last four games. He's the No. 1 target for Matt Ryan, works both the inside and the outside and the Lions rank 21st in DVOA against the opponent's No. 1 receiver. We're eyeballing Matt Ryan for this game as well and if he's on, Gage should be a huge asset this week.

The Jaguars rank 31st in DVOA against the pass and continue to struggle in coverage. Brandin Cooks chewed them up last week and with no Elijah Moore, Crowder will likely do the same. The Jaguars rank in the bottom 10 in DVOA against each receiving option and while Crowder spends the majority of his time working out of the slot, he's also been taking plenty of snaps on the outside as well.

Right back atcha, Jets. If the Jaguars rank 31st against the pass, guess who ranks dead last? You guessed it – the Jets! Treadwell has dominated the snaps and targets over the past few games and it is obvious now that he's become Trevor Lawrence's favorite target. In this battle of the bottom-feeders, we're getting a really nice bargain play who should pay off this week.

The targets finally tilted more towards Fant last week and now he's in an even juicier match-up against the Raiders who are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. They got dusted by Travis Kelce two weeks ago and gave up 40 yards and a score to the Browns tight ends this past week which doesn't include the 12-yard touchdown catch that was wrongfully taken away from David Njoku.

Kmet continue to see the work from Justin Fields and it's really just a matter of time before it start paying off for DFS owners. Seattle allows the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and rank 20th in DVOA, allowing an average of 55.3 receiving yards per game to them.

The Jets are coming close to being as bad against the tight end as the Eagles are right now. The Jets rank 30th in DVOA, give up an average of 64.4 receiving yards per game to them and are giving up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. And that rank is sadly "climbing" with each game that passes. We'll have to keep an eye on Dan Arnold who is being activated from IR, but O'Shaughnessy was always the No. 1 on this team. 

Not only is Rudolph facing the Eagles, but it's the Christmas weekend game, a time where, ironically, Rudolph always seems to show up. Yes, Evan Engram is the No. 1 on the Giants and many will pivot towards him, but we're smarter than that and Rudolph will be the way we differentiate ourselves from the pack and take down a holiday GPP.

TE Coach Andrew Cooper will be happy to see Jordan's name back on the Watch List after a brief one-week absence. The Chargers rank 25th in DVOA against the position, allow almost 65 receiving yards per game to them and allow the second-most fantasy points per game to the tight end. Enjoy the bargain!