NFL DFS Watch List: Week 15

The Cardinals aren't going to survive the NFL playoffs if Murray plays like he did Monday against the Rams, so this is the perfect opportunity for him and the Cardinals to unleash the fury. The Lions are straight-up terrible, allowing an average of 244 passing yards per game with 22 touchdowns allowed through the air. Opposing quarterbacks have posted a 101.1 passer rating against Detroit, fifth-highest in the league and that doesn't even factor in Murray's rushing ability and likelihood of at least one rushing touchdown. This is the perfect rebound game for Murray and the team, so we'll take advantage of it in DFS this week.

A recent report from NFL Insider Ian Rapoport states that Hurts, who is recovering from an ankle injury, is expected to be under center this week against Washington, so we need to give him a long look this week. His ability to run the ball in on his own is a big boost to his value, but it's likely to be all gravy here as Washington has allowed the most passing touchdowns (27) this season, they're giving up almost 260 passing yards per game and they have allowed the most fantasy points per game to the quarterback position. UPDATED 12/17 – The move to Tuesday should benefit Hurts and his ankle issues. What it does for Washington is anyone's guess, but their secondary was pretty bad even at full health, so he still makes for a good play. Unfortunately, that play will be found on a two-game slate on Tuesday 12/21 and not on the main slate this Sunday.  

The Ravens pass coverage was already struggling this season, but the loss of DB Marlon Humphrey has now pushed them closer to rock-bottom. Baltimore ranks 26th in DVOA against the pass and they've allowed 266.1 passing yards per game with 21 touchdowns on the year. We will, obviously, have to monitor Rodgers' toe issue, but if he is ready to go and doesn't have additional problems, he should have little to no trouble carving up this defense.

How much analysis do we really need to get into here with a match-up against the Jets? I get it…divisional games can be tough, but the Jets are dead-last in DVOA against the pass and we've see teams just beat up on them incessantly. Now, usually, teams just run all over them, but with all of Miami's running backs on the reserve/COVID list, Tua should focus more on Mike Gesicki and DeVante Parker here and just pummel the Jets through the air.

I really like Garoppolo in this match-up against the Falcons who rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and have coughed up a monster 26 passing touchdowns on the year. I will LOVE this match-up if Elijah Mitchell is still banged up and not ready to go as the ground game for the 49ers is much less effective without him. The point spread is 9.5 right now, but I could see the Falcons playing the Niners a little tougher than Vegas does right now and that should be the reason Garoppolo has to throw a little bit more.

We haven't received any new updates regarding Mitchell's condition as he missed last week with a concussion he suffered back in Week 13. If he plays, we're all-in as the Falcons are allowing almost 120 rushing yards per game and have allowed 12 rushing touchdowns on the season. They also rank 18th in DVOA against running back pass-plays. If he's out, well, just go back and ready about Jimmy G. because we're not making the mistake of pivoting to Jeffery Wilson again.,

We are anxiously awaiting reports from Miami regarding the entire backfield being place on the reserve/COVID list. If Gaskin receives clearance, then we're good to go with the Miami running back against a putrid Jets defense that has allowed a league-high 24 rushing touchdowns on the year. If not, we'll actually take a look at Duke Johnson who was recently promoted from the practice squad. We don't really want to, but the Jets make it awfully difficult to fade a running back facing them.

OK. We get it. Urban Meyer clearly does not like Robinson. But where else is he going to go this week? Carlos Hyde is dealing with a concussion and didn't practice Wednesday and Dare Ogunbowale is an average pass-catching back but doesn't bring a whole lot to the table between the tackles. The Houston Texans are horrible against the run and that's how everyone beats them up week in and week out. If Robinson can get the touches, he should be a force this week. It all comes down to his moronic coach.

No one is saying that Foreman is anything close to Dalvin Cook, but did you see the holes open up against this Steelers defense? They looked atrocious. Now, I certainly don't expect the Titans offensive line to do the same job or for Foreman to rush for over 200 yards, but with the way this Steelers run defense has played, he should still be able to post a strong stat line for DFS owners. And this price tag is certainly going to help us get a number of other top players into our lineups.

The beauty of a Watch List at this time is that we are genuinely watching the status of so many guys right now. James Conner sits on the cover of this week's edition, but he's being considered day-to-day after having an MRI on his ankle which forced him out of action late in Monday's loss to the Rams. The Cardinals were originally expected to activate Edmonds from IR before Monday's game but they didn't. Now the question is, do they do it for this week? If Conner is unable to play, Edmonds would slot in perfectly for this soft match-up against the Lions. We'll be on the lookout over the next few days to see what happens.

This one could get real ugly, real fast if the Seahawks don't watch out. Ugo Amadi is Seattle's slot-corner and there is no chance he can hang with Kupp who racked up 92 yards on seven catches the last time these teams played. Since that game, Kupp has posted six 100-yard efforts with seven touchdowns. He's coming off back-to-back120-plus yard games and scored in both. If you're going to pay up, it might as well be for the best. UPDATED 12/17 – This game has been moved to Tuesday 12/21, so we won't get Kupp on the main slate. You should consider him a featured target for your lineups when playing Tuesday's two-game slate.

Can't afford Kupp? Well how about Adams against a Ravens secondary that was already struggling before it lost its top cover-corner? Adams is coming off three-straight 100-yard games with four touchdowns in that span. This match-up is so tasty, I may want to just put him and Kupp in a lineup together and build around it with a bunch of scrubs.

Samuel made his way back last week but did seem a little limited by the groin issue. One of the tough things with him right now is the lack of targets. Since he's been doing all this rushing work, he's found his way into the end zone for four-straight games, but he's also only averaged three targets per game in that span. We'd like to see a little more from him in the receiving department, especially in a PPR format. We'll see how practices go, but if you're planning on using him and Mitchell is out, maybe think about FanDuel only since it's only half-point PPR.  

With word that Josh Allen made it back to at least a limited practice Wednesday, we can get ready to push all-in on Diggs this week. The Panthers will likely try to have Stephon Gilmore on his, but we haven't heard whether or not he will shadow him. If Gilmore does shadow, then we'll get a fantastic bargain play in Gabriel Davis who will see snaps while Emmanuel Sanders is out. So let's not just monitor the players; let's watch the whole team.

I actually liked this play even before the Washington Football Team had a massive COVID outbreak, but now with the potential of sub-standard coverage? Yes please! He's been a little quiet in recent games which should hopefully keep ownership down, but these last two games, the Eagles faced horrible run defenses. Washington's is actually a little bit better than that of the Jets or Giants, so look for Hurts to take it to the air a little more this week. UPDATED 12/17 – The move to Tuesday just means you'll be more inclined to using an Eagles stack for your short-slate lineups.

The Jaguars rank 31st in DVOA against the pass and have allowed just under 242 receiving yards per game. They have allowed 17 passing touchdowns this season ad opposing quarterbacks have a 101.6 passer rating against them, so look for Cooks, the only legitimate weapon the Texans have, to torment the Jacksonville secondary in this one. Davis Mils will be under center, so expect him to lean heavily on Cooks this Sunday.

As good as the 49ers defense can be, the fact that they rank 28th in DVOA against the opposition's No. 1 receiver should not be lost. Gage has averaged roughly eight targets per game over the Falcons' last four and has one 100-yard effort and one touchdown in that span where he has clearly taken over the top job in this offense. If this 9.5-point spread is for real, then Atlanta is going to be throwing heavily which helps Gage and if the Falcons play them tighter, then it is likely because the Falcons offense is cooking.

Everyone is going to be looking at Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb in this one nd while we still might, we are giving Gallup a long look here as the team's Z-receiver. Lamb spends a lot of time in the slot which keeps Gallup on the outside where the Giants rank 24th in DVOA. If you're going to use high-priced wideouts like Kupp and/or Adams, you're going to need someone at a much more reasonable price and that would be Gallup. He's averaged nine targets per game over his last four where he also has one 100-yard game and one touchdown. If he maintains his target share, he could be a nice, under-the-radar play this week.

He was a bust last week, but we're going to go right back to the well as the Dolphins struggle in coverage against the slot-receiver. In fact, they rank dead-last in DVOA against the slot and are allowing just over 72 yards per game to them. He racked up 44 yards and a touchdown on six catches the last time these teams played and while that was Joe Flacco under center, Zach Wilson is going to want to lean on him in this one too, especially with Elijah Moore out.

JUST ADDED – With Jaylen Waddle hitting the reserve/COVID list, we just got ourselves a fantastic bargain receiver as the Jets rank dead-last in DVOA against the pass and are allowing 254 passing yards per game with 21 passing touchdowns allowed on the season. Parker will dominate in targets in this game as he and Mike Gesicki are likely to two best options Tua will have. Expect him to be super-chalky again this week as this match-up is too good to pass up. 

The Falcons may not gie up a ton of fantasy points to the tight end each week, but they do rank 19th in DVOA against the position and Kittle is clearly not your ordinary tight end.  We've watched Garoppolo open up the passing game downfield with Kittle and this guys dominates over the middle and down the sidelines. With no Kelce on the main slate and Darren Waller likely to be out again, Kittle stands alone as the must-have, gotta-pay-up tight end for the week.

The Packers are another team that hasn't allowed a ton of fantasy points to the tight end, but they do rank 23rd in DVOA against the position and this Ravens passing attack continues to focus on Andrews. Whether it's Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley, Andrews will be a heavily-targets pass-catcher in this one and Green Bay is going to struggle over the middle to keep him covered. 

The Jets rank dead-last in DVOA against the tight end and they are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the position. Gesicki doesn't need the same 11 targets he saw last week, but we can sure hope he sees them. What we do want maintained is the red zone target share. He's seen five red zone targets in the last four games and should be able to score against a subpar defense here. 

Ignore the one catch for eight yards we saw last week. That's not happening this week against the Eagles who allow the most fantasy points per game to the tight end position. They rank 31st in DVOA and gave up touchdowns to tight ends for three-straight games heading into their bye week. With Terry McLaurin in concussion protocol and several Washington player out with COVID, Seals-Jones could see more targets than Seals & Croft put out records. UPDATED 12/17 – Still makes for one heck of a tight end option on Tuesday's two-game slate. I like him over both Gerald Everett and Tyler Higbee, but we'll have to wait and see on the price of Dallas Goedert before we fully commit.  

If Noah Fant is so darn good, how come it's Okwuegbunam who consistently sees the red zone targets? Fant is good between the 20's but for whatever reason neither Bridgewater nor Lock look for him in the end zone. For such a dirt-cheapo price against a defense that allows the eight-most fantasy points per game to the tight end, we are in on this guy in a major way.