NFL DFS Playbook: Week 11

We've been all over the place with Allen recently as he hit a two-game stretch of mediocrity following the Bills bye week, but then bounced back with a crushing victory over the Jets. We've seen him step up his game against strong offensive teams with a weak secondary (KC, TEN), and that's exactly what he has here with the Colts. Indianapolis has a strong front-seven with a stellar pass-rush but their corners leave little to be desired. They're allowing almost 250 passing yards per game with a league-high 23 passing touchdowns given up this season. Considering the rekindling of his bromance with Stefon Diggs and the array of pass-catching weapons at his disposal, Allen should be worth the pay-up here.

There are two major factors with this game that have me looking at Jackson, despite the fact that he's been dealing with a non-COVID related illness this week. Number one is the weather. It's going to be cold and rainy which, obviously favors a strong rushing attack which, for this team, is led by Jackson. Sure, they may get Latavius Murray back, but Jackson runs this offense and he trusts himself more than he trusts handing off a slick football into someone else's wet hands. Number two is the injury report. The Bears are going to be without defensive end Akiem Hicks and linebackers Khalil Mack and Danny Trevathan. Free safety Eddie Jackson is still questionable with a hamstring injury and while LB Alec Ogltree logged a full practice Friday and comes in without an injury designation this week, he's been battling an ankle issue during the week and the slick surface is going to be less than ideal for him. The Bears are middle of the pack regarding how many fantasy points per game they allow to quarterbacks, but they do rank 21st in DVOA against the run. Because of Jackson's rushing, he is always cash-game viable, though I may use him solely as a one-off in GPP tournaments. UPDATE: Let's keep a watchful eye on the news. Jackson popped back up on the injury report with whatever this non-COVID related illness is again. The team promoted QB Trace McSorley from the practice squad so this could be trouble.

We've been on Mahomes all week and I'm pretty sure my write-up in the Watch List gives you everything I'm thinking and what you need to know. To refresh your memory – After watching Mahomes and the Chiefs finally get back on-track last week, the confidence level in spending up for him in DFS is high once again. Now you're going to put him in a shootout with Dallas where the over/under is already at 56.5? Yes, please. The use of running back pass-plays not only restored an element of an Andy Reid system, but it gave the defense another weapon to have to scheme against. With Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce running amok through the secondary, the linebackers will have to pay more attention to Darrel Williams and that will only make things easier for Mahomes. I've debated him and Dak Prescott given their respective match-ups and could give a lean on Mahomes as the Cowboys could lead with the run more than we would expect Kansas City to. Perhaps my new sources from Chiefs Kingdom who lurk on the dark web can shed some light between now and lineup lock. 

Just as we have with Mahomes, Prescott is the other QB I've spent the entire week plugging into cash lineups. Dak had himself a get-right game last week as the Cowboys destroyed the Falcons 43-3 and while his always-supportive ground game was in full effect, Dak still flashed his passing skills and lit up Atlanta for almost 300 yards and two touchdowns. Oh yeah, and he ran one in himself too. He's probably, if I had to pick one over the other right this second, my favorite cash game play. The Chiefs rank 27th in DVOA against the pass, are allowing almost 260 passing yards per game and have given up 18 touchdowns through the air. But, one situation we need to monitor here is the potential for a COVID outbreak among the Cowboys wide receivers. Amari Cooper landed on the reserve/COVID list Friday which takes him out of the game. We're not going to freak out about it as the return of Michael Gallup and the presence of Cedrick Wilson joining CeeDee Lamb give Dak plenty of weapons. But if we lose anyone else, we may have to lean on Zeke a whole lot more and then stay with Mahomes as our cash option.

I'm actually surprised we don't have more people talking about this Bengals/Raiders game. The over/under is sitting at 50, the second-highest on the slate, and we have two QBs who like to sling the rock. I'm leaning Burrow here for the consistency and the fact that the Bengals are coming off a bye and hav had two weeks to prepare for this game. Las Vegas may only be allowing an average of 231 passing yards per game, but they've coughed up 17 touchdowns through the air and opposing QBs are positing a 96.5 passer rating against them. They're also giving up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the QB position, so look for Burrow to get the Bengals back on-track for the second half of the season.

He's one of my favorite QBs for GPP tournaments this week because no one is on him. No one. Imagine coming back from finger surgery and your first game is in Green Bay in the cold rain and snow (bonus points for you if you know the song)? I wouldn't be expecting much there either. But now at home on a brisk afternoon with no precipitation? Yeah, give me all the Wilson with Metcalf and Lockett you can give me in a GPP. As I said on Friday in the Watch List – Arizona may rank fourth in DVOA against the pass, but Wilson is back at home and he's ready to break out. He got the first game coming off IR out of the way, has all his weapons and will likely take over this game with both his arm and his legs. Wilson has a career passer rating of 96.8 against the Cardinals with almost 4,000 passing yards and a 29:8 TD:INT over 18 games. The Cardinals have dropped two of their last three games and are giving up an average of 25 points in that span. 

The finger and the potential for a heavier ground attack have me limiting Tua to GPP tournaments, but this should be a strong game overall for the second-year QB. The Jets rank dead-last in DVOA against the pass, they allow the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the QB position, they give up 283.2 passing yards per game with 15 touchdowns and opposing QBs are posting a 108.1 passer rating against them, highest in the league. You can certainly use him as a one-off if you just want/need to pay down at the QB spot, but I'll look to link him to Jaylen Waddle and then either Myles Gaskin or Mike Gesicki in a stack.

What I like most about using Cook this week is that I think we can get him at relatively low ownership. While the Packers rank 24th in DVOA against the run, most people will look at the raw numbers and see that the Packers are allowing just 107.2 rushing yards per game, only eight rushing touchdowns on the season and are allowing the 10th-fewest fantasy points per game to the running back position. But look at who they've played. Alex Collins? Darrell Williams in an offense that doesn't run? Antonio Gibson with a fractured shin? The best ground game they faced in the last four weeks was Arizona's and they allowed three touchdowns to the tandem of James Conner and Chase Edmonds. So long as Klint Kubiak sticks to the proper plan, Cook is going to shred the Packers defense. In his last three games against the Packers, Cook is averaging 22 touches, 122 rushing yards, 33 receiving yards, just over two touchdowns and 31.6 fantasy points per game. Yeah, I'll happily ride those numbers this week in a must-win for the Vikings.

Chubb received clearance and was officially activated from the reserve/COVID list Friday and is more than ready to get back to work. This match-up is going to be an absolute dream as the Lions are allowing 135.7 rushing yards per game (third-highest in the league) and have given up 10 rushing touchdowns. With Tim Boyle under center for Detroit, you're probably looking at a lot of three-and-outs which means the Browns are going to lean heavily on the run and get out with the win as easily as possible. Is there a chance the Browns go up big and use D'Ernest Johnson more in the second half? Quite possibly. But I'm not going to fade Chubb because the Browns are going to have a big lead. He's going to be the one responsible for that lead. Rain in the forecast here as ell, so expect some sloppiness.  

While everyone is looking at the passing attacks in this game, you cannot overlook Elliott in what should be a smash match-up for him. The Chiefs rank 26th in DVOA against the run and are allowing an average of 114.6 rushing yards per game with 10 rushing touchdowns allowed this season and the 15th-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. This Dallas offense has proven to be dynamic enough that both the passing and rushing attacks can rack up points together, just as we saw last week when Dak threw for three scores while Zeke ran in two. With the desire to keep Mahomes and the Chiefs offense on the sidelines, don't be surprised if Mike McCarthy demands a heavier rushing attack early. 

Mixon was on the cover for the Watch List and remains here in the Playbook as one of my favorite options. So unheralded too. Again, this game has as much potential to smash as the Chiefs/Cowboys game, though not as many people are looking at it. Maybe that helps us more in GPP tournaments as a Bengals stack seems very likely. The Raiders have become somewhat of a run-funnel this season and the 129.1 yards per game with a 4.5 YPC average probably tell you all you need to know. They've allowed eight rushing touchdowns on the season and allow the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. With the extensive volume Mixon routinely sees, he should warrant serious consideration for your lineups this week.

As soon as Aaron Jones went down with the knee injury, you knew Dillon was going to be chalk. The guy we affectionately refer to as Quadzilla is a behemoth and stopping him from crashing through the defensive line can be an exercise in futility once he gets those legs churning. The Vikings rank 28th in DVOA against the run, allow just over 130 rushing yards per game with eight rushing touchdowns allowed on the season and are giving up 4.7 yards per carry. With what Mike Zimmer has done to improve the secondary during the season, attacking the Vikings on the ground is going to be the way to win. At least that's probably what Matt LaFleur is thinking. Arron Rodgers, well, that's a different story. The price tag is obviously affordable and the Draft Percentage Forecaster is already estimating him to be the highest-owned player on the slate. We'll take the bargain price for cash games to keep pace, but will probably look elsewhere for GPP contests. 

While the numbers show Conner is a top-10 running back in the NFL this season, his price tag says something else. And you know what…? I'm good with that. Let people overlook him. Hell, I've probably overlooked him more than I should have in DFS this season. But this is a great spot for him, especially if Kyler Murray is back under center. Having a running QB on the field next to you keeps defenses off-balance and opens up wider running lanes for Conner to take advantage of. Seattle is allowing the second-most fantasy points per game to the running back position, the seventh-most rushing yards per game (125.2) and eight rushing touchdowns on the season. I will say the job gets a little tougher if Murray is out, so keep an eye on the inactives tomorrow and consider having a late-game pivot available to you if you plan on using Conner.

LATE ADD – I don't want to overload you with running back options, but with all the value available and all the high-end options sitting in strong spots, people are going to need to know who is safe and who isn't at the varying pricing tiers. Obviously, there's no one way to skin a cat, so understanding that you can get a safe floor from a variety of places is necessary. The Jets run defense is atrocious and teams are beating up on them pretty heavily with a strong rushing attack. The Bills did it last week, the Colts the week before and remember when the Patriots put up 54 on them? They scored four rushing touchdowns in that one. The Dolphins did add Duke Johnson to the mix, but he's not a between-the-tackles type of player. Gaskin should see enough work against a terrible run defense to land him a high floor for your cash games if you need. I'm not sure you do given the presence of Ingram, Wilson and Dillon, but again, just in case.

He's back as the Saints No. 1 running back again with news that Alvin Kamara will not play in Week 11. Last week, Ingram had over 100 all-purpose yards and found his way into the end zone against the Titans. This week, he's got an even better match-up this week against the Eagles who rank 20th in DVOA against the run and are allowing 117.3 rushing yards per game. They've also given up 11 rushing touchdowns. The price on Draft Kings is fantastic, though the price bump on FD might be a little tough. Still, having this kind of value available to you in DFS is pure gold. We're also positioned a little better this week than we were last week should all the value chalk hit again.

With news that Elijah Mitchell (finger) is listed as doubtful for this Sunday, Wilson steps up as the 49ers RB1 and should be treated as such. Now keep in mind, the Jaguars rank seventh in DVOA against the run and are allowing the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game. However, they have coughed up 11 rushing touchdowns this season so while Wilson may not rack up a ton of yardage, there's a very good chance he finds the end zone. We're going to track the ownership heading into the games on Sunday and see how chalky he becomes. People may opt to pay a few more bucks for the mid-tier backs like Myles Gaskin or even David Montgomery, but using Wilson as the pay-down should help us get bigger guys like Kelce or Lamb into our lineups.

Throughout his career, Adams has faced Minnesota 13 times and has racked up 75 catches for nearly 800 yards and 10 touchdowns. While the Vikings secondary has improved over the course of this season, Zimmer has always had a solid secondary, so Adams picking it apart is nothing new. The Vikings still allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game this season and rank just 18th in DVOA against the opposing WR1, so if you can afford the pay-up, Adams will be worth it, for sure.

In all honesty, I have no idea how the Cowboys are going to contain Hill this week. Sure, they can use bracket coverage and then focus a little more on Travis Kelce, but then the short-passing game they showed last week using Darrel Williams is going to burn them. Hill lines up in the slot for the majority of his reps which puts Jourdan Lewis on him and that's…well…that's going to hurt a lot. Hurt the Cowboys, that is. Even if they were to move Trevon Diggs into the slot at times, Hill's speed is going to take center stage and we could see some big plays downfield. The prices are going to make it very difficult for people to stack Chiefs and/or Cowboys in this one, but you should definitely be looking to sprinkle them into your lineups that use lower-owned, lower-cost stacks.

He's an elite talent and should take full advantage of the Packers missing Jaire Alexander. The DVOA numbers look good for Green Bay, but that has more to do with the fact that they can't stop the run. Once Dalvin Cook establishes the run for Minnesota, they'll open up the passing attack even more and get Jefferson his usual allotment of targets. The fact that he has just one touchdown over his last five games can be extremely frustrating, but should this game turn into a bit of a shootout with the 49 over/under, you'll want to be invested in Jefferson.

He finally had the breakout game we've all been waiting for last week and the tandem of Diggs and Allen should ride that momentum into this week against a soft Colts secondary. Indianapolis is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position and rank 27th in DVOA against the opposition's top wideout, giving up just over 80 yards per game to them. It wouldn't surprise anyone to see another 100-yard effort with another trip to the end zone here.

He'll be super-chalky this week after everyone got a look at him in prime-time and witnessed first-hand what he is capable of doing. The 49ers love using him on, not just the jet sweeps, but on all kinds of running plays while also keeping him heavily targeted in the passing attack. The target share remains high and the Jaguars defense ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass while giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Expect another strong effort so long as the travel doesn't get to the team.

Targeting against Houston is low-hanging fruit, but sometimes those mushy bananas about to fall from the tree are the sweetest of the bunch. Brown has struggled through double-coverage over the last two games and we should probably expect to see a similar game-plan from the Texans, save for the fact that, even with double-coverage, they are going to struggle to contain Brown. They just don't have the talent in the secondary. Houston is allowing nearly 80 receiving yards per game to the opposition's top wideout and they are giving up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to the receiver position. The Titans will look to establish the run early with Adrian Peterson and D'Onta Foreman which will, in turn, open things up more for Brown downfield.

We're going to be keeping a close eye on the Cowboys locker room with Amari Cooper landing on the reserve/COVID list as we hope not to see Lamb or any of the other wideouts who could be close-contacts follow suit. If all is well, though, Lamb is, obviously, a top priority for lineups as he ranks ninth in receiving yards, eighth in receiving touchdowns and eighth in fantasy points among wide receivers this season. Meanwhile, the Chiefs rank 27th in DVOA against the pass, allow 258.6 passing yards per game with 18 passing touchdowns allowed this season and still give up 35-plus fantasy points per game to receivers. He'll likely see Rashad Fenton the most which should be a solid match-up, but Lamb's size and speed likely win out here.

Slowly but surely, Renfrow has become a PPR darling and a fantastic play in DFS. He's seen nine targets in each of his last two games and turned them into 14 catches for 95 yards and two touchdowns. No, the yardage is never outlandish, but his four touchdowns on the season already match a career-high and his seven red zone targets in the last three games shows you that more are on the way. He's good for both cash games and GPP tournaments, though keep in mind that his price tag will keep him super-chalky. A potential pay-down to Bryan Edwards could be the answer for GPP tournaments, especially if ownership on Renfrow is high.

If you've listened to the NFL DFS Podcast, then you've heard the back-and-forth between me and Jon Impemba regarding how teams attack the Jets. Yes, the running game is definitely effective, but even with Gaskin on the roster, the Dolphins haven't exactly been a run-first team. Nothing wrong with attacking the Jets through the air, right? They rank dead-last in DVOA against the pass, they're giving up the second-most passing yards per game (283.2) and they've allowed 15 passing touchdowns on the year with 11 of them coming in the last four games.

Obviously Ja'Marr Chase can be used and will likely be included when we start stacking Bengals, but the I like Higgins as the pay-down here a little bit more. Maybe it's because the Raiders aren't a blitz-heavy team and when facing teams that don't bum-rush the QB, Burrow takes more time to find his other receivers in traffic. He's averaging just over eight targets per game since coming back from injury and while he hasn't found the end zone since Week 2, all signs are pointing to that trend coming to a close. The Raiders may move veteran corner Casey Hayward onto Chase as well, which should continue to open things up more for Higgins over the middle of the field. 

I really like this match-up for Smith as he's been working out of the slot a lot more recently and the results have been positive. His target share is gradually increasing, he's seen five red zone looks in the last three games and has two touchdowns to show for it. He'll probably see a lot of Avonte Maddox in this match-up, one that has been very positive for Smith in the past, but now there's the question of what kind of a guy is Maddox? Is he the type of guy who signs his new deal and rests on his laurels or does he go out and play harder to prove that he's somehow worth $22.5 million over the next three years? I'll lean towards Smith having the edge here.

With news that Marquise Brown has been downgraded to out for this game, the attention easily turns to Bateman. The Bears rank dead-last in DVOA against the opposition's top wideout and Bateman is more than likely to be the No. 1 target in this passing attack. He's been seeing an increase in targets since the team's bye and has responded well with some tough catches. Given his popularity, you may want to look at him as a second pay-down if you've been using Michael Gallup as your primary salary-saver. The two of them in your lineup is going to open things up mighty wide for some top plays in cash games.

Rarely do we list two receivers from the same team here in the Playbook, but if you're using the NFL Lineup Generator and the “Playbook Only” feature, I want to make sure we don't miss Gallup as the pay-down option in this game. With no Amari Cooper, Gallup will see an increase in targets this week and since Cooper wasn't out until late Friday, the price tag for Gallup remains pleasantly low. This game will likely turn into a shootout, so you're going to want to have a piece of it in your lineups somewhere and Gallup's super-afordable price tag is going to make it very easy for you. He'll be super-chalky this week so don't be shy about using him in your cash games too.

We're at that point again where if you're not paying up for Kelce, you're paying way down and punting the position. But paying up with this match-up just might be the no-brainer of the week as Dallas ranks 24th in DVOA against the tight end and allow an average of 62 receiving yards and 12 fantasy points per game to them. That's for regular tight ends. Kelce is, obviously, a different story. If the Chiefs can maintain the same offensive attack they pulled off Sunday night against the Raiders, Kelce should have a huge game this week against the Cowboys.

Since returning from IR, Kittle has now seen 18 targets over two games and has turned them into 11 catches for 151 yards and two touchdowns. While he is not the only game in town for Jimmy G., having Deebo Samuel on the field only boosts Kittle's value as he draws coverage away and opens up that seam route we've all watched Kittle run. The Jaguars rank 26th in DVOA against the tight end position, allow just over 60 yards per game to them and give up the 10th-most fantasy points per game to them. Kittle should have little to no issue thriving in this match-up. If you can't afford Kelce, Kittle makes for one heck of an alternative.  

Why wouldn't you want Gesicki in your lineups, whether it's as part of a Dolphins stack or as just a one-off? The Jets are allowing the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and rank 28th against them in DVOA. He was somehow blanked last week against the Ravens, but still maintained his seven targets per game average. Look for him to get back on the right side of things this week and look for him to do his first bit of end zone dancing in four games.

We let Knox get his feet wet again last week as he was returning from a broken hand. Now that he finished the game with no issues, we can get him back into our lineups, especially when the match-up looks this good. The Colts are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and Knox, before the injury, was one of Allen's most reliable targets, especially inside the red zone. The price on DK is going to make him incredibly popular and you wouldn't be wrong for hopping onto the bandwagon.

Is it time for another Uzomah breakout? Sure feels like it! The Bengals are coming off a bye week so everyone is healthy and well-rested. The Raiders rank 29th in DVOA against the tight end, they allow almost 80 yards per game to the position and are gifting the second-most fantasy points per game to them as well. Their cover-corners have shown improvement over the course of the season and with that, they allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the receivers. That sounds like passes over the middle to the tight end to me and that screams UZOMAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!

We've witnessed some steady development for Justin Fields over the past couple of weeks and now coming off the bye week and having two weeks to prepare for the Ravens, this could be a surprisingly solid game for the Bears. The rookie QB, like most rookie QBs, has leaned on short passes over the middle to his tight end and he's now seen close to seven targets per game over his last three. Even better is the four red zone targets that have come over the Bears' last two games so it's just a short matter of time before Kmet becomes that locked-in end zone target. Get in now before the price goes up.

Remember when we had Trautman pegged as a sleeper during the preseason? Well, that may not have worked out in the first half, but now that Trevor Siemian is the guy under center, Trautman is finally seeing the consistent targets we've been hoping to see. He's seen six to seven targets per game over the last three and has three red zone targets as well. Goin up against the Eagles, who allow the most fantasy points per game to the tight end position, could be the breakout game we've been waiting for. Invest now!

If you're paying up for a defense this week, then the Titans against the Texans are the low-hanging fruit. Houston has little to no ground game of which to speak, they have one wide receiver worth his salt in Brandin Cooks and Tyrod Taylor isn't exactly lighting things up on the scoreboard, healthy or not. The Texans have 17 giveaways on the season while the Titans have the seventh-most takeaways with 14 on the season.

It's not like taking out Mike White and his four interceptions last week is much different than starting Joe Flacco, is it? How in the world do the Jets justify starting  guy who is way past his prime and has no business starting an NFL game? It's a mind-scrambler to say the least. Miami has the sixth-highest number of takeaways while the hapless Jets lead the league with 22 giveaways this season. 

This could be a sloppy game as there is rain in the forecast and the Bears are still an inexperienced team with a struggling offensive line. You can expect John Harbaugh to blitz heavily in this one and try to rattle Justin Fields as much as possible. If he is successful, the Bears are going to struggle in every possible way. It's a good mid-tier price on DK though still might be a little too pricey for me on FD.

So funny how the pricing between the two main sites work as the Browns are the most expensive on FanDuel yet a huge bargain on Draft Kings. Good ol' Yahoo has them right in the middle. Obviously, Tim Boyle under center for the Lions is a huge boon for the Browns defense, but this game is also supposed to have lousy weather which means turnover central. Love them Browns, baby!

If we're looking for the cheapest possible defense that is still usable and has a decent match-up, then the Panthers look like the place to go. The Panthers made improvements to their defensive line in the offseason and made moves during the year here to improve the secondary.  Taylor Heinicke has thrown nine interceptions already and Washington has 14 giveaways in total. If you need to save salary, this is the place.