NFL DFS Watch List: Week 11

Anyone who had any doubts regarding Allen and the Bills following their loss to the Jaguars had to love what they saw last week against the Jets. This week's match-up should be even better for Allen as the front-seven for the Colts is vastly superior to that of the Jets and he'll need to throw more in this one. The Colts are allowing almost 250 passing yards per game with a league-high 23 passing touchdowns allowed this season. Given the array of pass-catching weapons at his disposal, Allen should be worth the pay-up here.

After watching Mahomes and the Chiefs finally get back on-track last week, the confidence level in spending up for him in DFS is high once again. Now you're going to put him in a shootout with Dallas where the over/under is already at 56.5? Yes, please. The use of running back pass-plays not only restored an element of an Andy Reid system, but it gave the defense another weapon to have to scheme against. With Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce running amok through the secondary, the linebackers will have to pay more attention to Darrel Williams and that will only make things easier for Mahomes.  

Just like Mahomes and Allen, Dak had himself a get-right game last week as the Cowboys destroyed the Falcons 43-3. While his always-supportive ground game was in full effect, Dak still flashed his passing skills and lit up Atlanta for almost 300 yards and two touchdowns. Oh yeah, and he ran one in himself too. The Chiefs rank 27th in DVOA against the pass, are allowing almost 260 passing yards per game and have given up 18 touchdowns through the air. With the way this game could go back and forth, both QBs should be extremely chalky and likely a lock for cash game play. UPDATE: With news that Amari Cooper has been placed on the COVID/reserve list, we'll look to see what happens with the rest of the Cowboys receiving corps

JUST ADDED – Arizona may rank fourth in DVOA against the pass, but Wilson is back at home and he's ready to break out. He got the first game coming off IR out of the way, has all his weapons and will likely take over this game with both his arm and his legs. Wilson has a career passer rating of 96.8 against the Cardinals with almost 4,000 passing yards and a 29:8 TD:INT over 18 games. The Cardinals have dropped two of their last three games and are giving up an average of 25 points in that span. Let everyone worry about what Wilson did or didn't do in Green Bay last week. He'll be just fine this week.

Even with a bum finger, this game should be an easy one for Tagovailoa. The Jets rank dead-last in DVOA against the pass, they allow the 11th-most fantasy points per game to the QB position, they give up 283.2 passing yards per game with 15 touchdowns and opposing QBs are posting a 108.1 passer rating against them, highest in the league. He's not a trusted enough QB for you to use him as a potential pay-down in cash, but using him in this match-up for GPP tournaments in a Dolphins stack should be something you can/should explore if building multiple lineups. 

It took the Panthers just three days of having Cam Newton back in uniform before they turned over the reins to him again. Against the Cardinals, he ran in one touchdown himself and he completed a two-yard TD pass to Robby Anderson. Now they have him taking all the first-team reps at practice and will use him under center to start the game. While you cannot expect him to be some prolific passer downfield, you can certainly expect him to rack up yards through quick, short timing routes and designed screens to Christian McCaffrey. While he's doing that, he will also be poaching numerous touchdown runs as well. All of this now against Washington; the worst secondary in the league and a defensive line that just lost Chase Young for the duration of the season. UDPATE: This pick is losing steam as head coach Matt Rhule said Newton will take the first snap from under center, but that P.J. Walker will probably get some work in as well. 

If Chubb clears the league's COVID protocol, then getting him into your lineups is going to be a must. The Lions are allowing 135.7 rushing yards per game (third-highest in the league) and have given up 10 rushing touchdowns. If Chubb is not ready, then simply sub in D'Ernest Johnson. He's done very well for himself over these last two weeks. UPDATE: Chubb has been activated from the COVID/reserve list and is expected to play.

The Raiders have become somewhat of a run-funnel this season and the 129.1 yards per game with a 4.5 YPC average probably tell you all you need to know. They've allowed eight rushing touchdowns on the season and allow the ninth-most fantasy points per game to the running back position. With the extensive volume Mixon routinely sees, he should warrant serious consideration for your lineups this week.

As soon as Aaron Jones went down with the knee injury, you knew Dillon was going to be chalk. The guy is a behemoth and stopping him from crashing through the defensive line can be an exercise in futility once he gets those legs churning. The Vikings rank 28th in DVOA against the run, allow just over 130 rushing yards per game with 8 rushing touchdowns allowed on the season and are giving up 4.7 yards per carry. With what Mike Zimmer has done to improve the secondary during the season, attacking the Vikings on the ground is going to be the way to win.

Yeah, I know. Gaskin was pretty blah last week and he doesn't rack up a ton of yards. But if you're using him in a full-point PPR set-up like Draft Kings, the points he adds through the passing game are going to be a huge bonus. The Jets are a hot mess, allowing 133.9 rushing yards per game, but where they really suck is at keeping the other team from scoring on the ground. The Jets have allowed a league-high 19 rushing touchdowns, four more than the next worst team. I can understand not using Gaskin in cash games, but he's going to be a GPP must-add this week. 

JUST ADDED – He's back as the Saints No. 1 running back again with news that Alvin Kamara will not play in Week 11. Last week, Ingram had over 100 all-purpose yards and found his way into the end zone against the Titans. This week, he's got an even better match-up this week against the Eagles who rank 20th in DVOA against the run and are allowing 117.3 rushing yards per game. They've also given up 11 rushing touchdowns. The price on Draft Kings is fantastic, though the price bump on FD might be a little tough.

JUST ADDED – With news that Elijah Mitchell (finger) is listed as doubtful for this Sunday, Wilson steps up as the 49ers RB1 and should be treated as such. Now keep in mind, the Jaguars rank seventh in DVOA against the run and are allowing the 12th-fewest rushing yards per game. However, they have coughed up 11 rushing touchdowns this season so while Wilson may not rack up a ton of yardage, there's a very good chance he finds the end zone.

I threw this question out on my Twitter timeline as well – what do you get when you mix my least-favorite NFL player with my most-favorite fantasy football narrative? You get the D'Onta Foreman revenge game narrative! I really don't like this guy and normally wouldn't recommend him, but he's definitely better than Adrian Peterson or Jeremy McNichols and the Texans are absolute trash when protecting against the run. Houston is allowing 136.9 rushing yards per game, they've allowed 15 rushing touchdown and Foreman wasted two years of his time there, playing for a team that never even wanted to use him. He should lead the Titans charge this week and find tremendous success doing so.

Throughout his career, Adams has faced Minnesota 13 times and has racked up 75 catches for nearly 800 yards and 10 touchdowns. While the Vikings secondary has improved over the course of this season, Zimmer has always had a solid secondary, so Adams picking it apart is nothing new. The Vikings still allow the sixth-most fantasy points per game this season and rank just 18th in DVOA against the opposing WR1, so if you can afford the pay-up, Adams will be worth it, for sure.,

He's an elite talent and should take full advantage of the Packers missing Jaire Alexander. The DVOA numbers look good for Green Bay, but that has more to do with the fact that they can't stop the run. Once Dalvin Cook establishes the run for Minnesota, they'll open up the passing attack even more and get Jefferson his usual allotment of targets. The fact that he has just one touchdown over his last five games can be extremely frustrating, but should this game turn into a bit of a shootout with the 49 over/under, you'll want to be invested in Jefferson.

He finally had the breakout game we've all been waiting for last week and the tandem of Diggs and Allen should ride that momentum into this week against a soft Colts secondary. Indianapolis is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position and rank 27th in DVOA against the opposition's top wideout, giving up just over 80 yards per game to them. It wouldn't surprise anyone to see another 100-yard effort with another trip to the end zone here.

He'll be super-chalky this week after everyone got a look at him in prime-time and witnessed first-hand what he is capable of doing. The 49ers love using him on, not just the jet sweeps, but on all kinds of running plays while also keeping him heavily targeted in the passing attack. The target share remains high and the Jaguars defense ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass while giving up the seventh-most fantasy points to the wide receiver position. Expect another strong effort so long as the travel doesn't get to the team.

Not only do the Bears allow the eighth-most fantasy points per game to wide receivers, but they also rank dead-last in DVOA against the opposing WR1, allowing just over 73 receiving yards per game to them. Brown has received double-digit targets in four of the last five games and routinely performs like a high-level receiver. Have we seen the occasional bad game from him? Yes, just like we see with almost every player in the NFL. The confidence level in Brown should be very high. UDPATE: Brown is still listed as questionable with a thigh issue. If he's out, we likely pivot to Rashod Bateman, but we're not as high on him.

While the Panthers have taken measures to improve their secondary, they are still struggling in coverage against the opposition's No. 1 target, as evidenced by the DVOA ranking of 29th in the league through the first 10 weeks of the season. McLaurin's been a little quiet lately with just one touchdown over his last five games, but this just might be a match-up even Taylor Heinicke can't screw up.

The Titans may rank well in DVOA against the pass, but they're still giving up just over 65 yards per game to opposing No. 1 receivers and they still allow the most fantasy points per game to the receiver position on the whole. Cooks is the only guy worth using off this Houston team and you have to expect they are going to need to pass heavily, particularly in the second half. This is the play to go against your Titans stack – Tannehill, Foreman, AJ Brown with Cooks coming back.

Still waffling between him and Robby Anderson right now as you always need to give a little but of time to see who the favorite receiver is of the new quarterback. They were each targeted once by Newton during Sunday's game, but it was Anderson who caught the touchdown, so people will likely flock to him. We'll have to look at the Draft Percentage Forecaster to see where the public sits. But given how bad the Washington secondary is, we'd be foolish not to look at both and figure out where we want to go on Saturday after practice reports have come in.  

It's not often that I'll recommend using a New York Jet, but garbage-time points count and it's clear that Moore is the new No. 1 target on this team. He's averaged close to seven targets per game over his last four and now has 10 grabs for 128 yards and three touchdowns over his last two games. Miami ranks 17th in DVOA against the pass, they allow 273.8 passing yards per game and have coughed up 18 touchdowns through the air. With Moore lining up all over the field, you can expect the Jets to seek out the biggest mismatches throughout the game and get him the ball. They're definitely building something with him, so take advantage of the low price tag. UPDATE: With news that Joe Flacco will start, we may simply pivot to Jamison Crowder who has history with the veteran QB.

I'm a big fan of the talent here, but am still apprehensive because of the quarterback. Baker Mayfield has struggled mightily, though is numbers do improve when he is using play-action. At some point, Kevin Stefanski is going to have to realize this and he is going to have to over-commit to the run. That's when the Browns have their success. If they establish the run, the passing game will open up and Peoples-Jones, who is arguably their most-talented wideout, will get the ball downfield. Facing the Lions, could be a huge boost, so long as the coaches understand and stick to the plan. Keep it simple, Stefanski!

JUST ADDED – We'll keep an eye on the Cowboys locker room over the next few days to ensure there is no massive outbreak of COVID, especially with the receivers. But if everything else is fine, with Amari Cooper out, Gallup should take a step forward this week. He'll see a bump in snaps and targets and if you look at the DVOA numbers for Kansas City, you'll see how they rank 26th against the opposition's No. 2 wideout. CeeDee Lamb is obviously very much in-play as well, but the money you're saving with Gallup, especially in what should be a high-scoring affair, could be the play to make.

We're at that point again where if you're not paying up for Kelce, you're paying way down and punting the position. But paying up with this match-up just might be the no-brainer of the week as Dallas ranks 24th in DVOA against the tight end and allow an average of 62 receiving yards and 12 fantasy points per game to them. That's for regular tight ends. Kelce is, obviously, a different story. If the Chiefs can maintain the same offensive attack they pulled off Sunday night against the Raiders, Kelce should have a huge game this week against the Cowboys.

We let Knox get his feet wet again last week as he was returning from a broken hand. Now that he finished the game with no issues, we can get him back into our lineups, especially when the match-up looks this good. The Colts are giving up the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end position and Knox, before the injury, was one of Allen's most reliable targets, especially inside the red zone. The price on DK is going to make him incredibly popular and you wouldn't be wrong for hopping onto the bandwagon.

Is it time for another Uzomah breakout? Sure feels like it! The Bengals are coming off a bye week so everyone is healthy and well-rested. The Raiders rank 29th in DVOA against the tight end, they allow almost 80 yards per game to the position and are gifting the second-most fantasy points per game to them as well. Their cover-corners have shown improvement over the course of the season and with that, they allow the sixth-fewest fantasy points per game to the receivers. That sounds like passes over the middle to the tight end to me and that screams UZOMAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!

We've witnessed some steady development for Justin Fields over the past couple of weeks and now coming off the bye week and having two weeks to prepare for the Ravens, this could be a surprisingly solid game for the Bears. The rookie QB, like most rookie QBs, has leaned on short passes over the middle to his tight end and he's now seen close to seven targets per game over his last three. Even better is the four red zone targets that have come over the Bears' last two games so it's just a short matter of time before Kmet becomes that locked-in end zone target. Get in now before the price goes up.

Remember when we had Trautman pegged as a sleeper during the preseason? Well, that may not have worked out in the first half, but now that Trevor Siemian is the guy under center, Trautman is finally seeing the consistent targets we've been hoping to see. He's seen six to seven targets per game over the last three and has three red zone targets as well. Goin up against the Eagles, who allow the most fantasy points per game to the tight end position, could be the breakout game we've been waiting for. Invest now!