NFL DFS Playbook: Week 10

As I mentioned in the Watch List, you just have to put last week behind you and move on. Allen and the Bills looked awful and got beat by a bad team. It happens. Maybe they were looking past the game, but I expect it to be a wake-up call for Buffalo and my poor Jets are going to be on the negative side of a serious beat-down. The Jets allow 275 passing yards per game, were pummeled by the Colts last week and while Jonathan Taylor did most of the damage, Carson Wentz still had a strong effort. In fact, opposing QBs are posting a 106.1 passer rating against the Jets which is the third-highest in the league. With Zack Moss dealing with a concussion and how little the Bills utilize their ground game, expect Allen to take control and dominate on his own. 

Brady and the Bucs are well-rested after their bye week and are looking to start the second half of their season in style. They get a nice treat with an opening game against Washington, a team that ranks 31st in DVOA against the pass and allow 286.8 passing yards per game. They've also allowed 20 passing touchdowns, second-most in the league, and are allowing a passer rating of 107.6 against them. It's true that the majority of Brady's success has come at home this season, but the game they lost in New Orleans just before the bye saw Brady throw for 375 yards and four touchdowns, so it looks like the road-monkey is off his back. Washington's garbage secondary should help reinforce that.

On paper, the numbers don't exactly line up for Herbert, but there's something about this game that just looks like it's going to smash. The 52.5 over/under is the second-highest on the slate and while the Vikings rank third in DVOA against the pass, they've given up some serious yards and points through the air. Of course your numbers are going to look good when you play a four-game stretch against Baker Mayfield, Jared Goff, Sam Darnold and Cooper Rush. And you know what…? Rush threw for over 300 yards with two touchdowns. We also need to factor in the defensive struggles and injuries for the Chargers as that is going to likely force Herbert into throwing more, especially if the Vikings are trying to run heavy and sit on a lead. He may not be my top choice at the position this week, but I'll have a GPP lineup with a Chargers stack in there, for sure. 

Rodgers wasn't in my first draft of the Playbook as there was concern as to whether or not he would play this week, but a recent report from NFL Network's Tom Pelissero says Rodgers returned to the Packers facility and will start Sunday against Seattle. You have to love both the match-up and the chip on Rodgers' shoulder here. Love him or hate him, anyone who heard the Rodgers interview on the Pat McAfee Show knows that he's looking to come out and shut everyone up during his first game back from the reserve/COVID list. Seattle ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass, they allow 273.9 passing yards per game and have coughed up 12 touchdowns through the air. Coming off a bye or not, the Seahawks secondary is going to have trouble with Rodgers. 

Similar to Josh Allen, you need to just put last week behind you and move on. Prescott returned from his calf injury and looked terrible against Denver. But are we going to dump on him? No. Dak is too good a quarterback and the Cowboys simply have too much firepower on offense. While I expect them to hit the ground running early on, this game is likely to be high-scoring, as evidenced by the rising over/under which is now at 54.5, and we could see it turn into a shootout. After all, the Falcons rank 28th in DVOA against the pass, they allow the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the QB position and opposing QBs are posting a 104.1 passer rating against them. Expect some redemption for Dallas this week.

While the Chargers rank sixth in DVOA, they are suddenly dealing with a rash of injuries in the secondary that we expect Cousins to exploit this week. CB Ryan Smith tore his ACL and is out for the season, Michael Davis is doubtful with a hamstring injury and both free safeties, Nasir Adderley and Mark Webb are listed as questionable. The Vikings will, obviously, lead with Dalvin Cook and establish the run, but this game has all the earmarks of being a typical one for Minnesota as it turns into a second-half shootout. I'd be ok paying down for Cousins in cash, but I'm more looking at him for GPP tournaments.

Dallas is another team that ranks well in DVOA against the pass (seventh overall), but could struggle in this one. The 54.5 is the highest total on the board this week and we expect Ryan to lead the Falcons into battle against his former coach, Dan Quinn, who is now the defensive coordinator for Dallas. It's not so much a revenge-game narrative as it is Ryan having faced Quinn's defensive schemes in practice for all that time. He knows the tendencies of the coach and he know where to exploit the group most. Ryan is sixth in completions, fourth in completion percentage, 12th in passing yards, 12th in touchdowns, has a 15:6 TD:INT and is 12th in QB rating this season. This could prove to be one of his stronger games this season.

The price is comparable to the rest of his tier on FanDuel, but the DK cost has Wentz as my favorite pay-down at the position. The Clts QB is flying under the radar, averaging 251 passing yards per game and has a 14:2 TD:INT over his last six games and no one is paying attention. Well, maybe they will this week when he faces a Jaguars team that ranks dead-last in DVOA against the pass, is giving up 272 passing yards per game and is allowing opposing QBs to post a 104.8 passer rating against them. They've only allowed 11 touchdowns through the air this season but that number is about to go up again. The Colts will happily lead with the run, just as they did against the Jets last week, but Wentz will still get his…again, just like he did against the Jets last week.

Not only is Taylor coming off his best game of the season, but he's had the long week to recover and now has a match-up he should smash as the Jaguars allow 103.4 rushing yards per game and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns. You also have the fact that his last game was in prime-time which means everyone watched as he manhandled the Jets and his expected ownership is going to be high. He's super-pricey, but can also be paired with one of the chalky bargain backs, so he's viable in both cash games and GPP tourneys.

I am not going to let Cook's off-field issues deter me from using him this week. Not at all. He is one of the absolute best running backs out there and is running against the worst run defense in the league? Yes, please. The Chargers are allowing the most rushing yards per game (161.6), the most rushing yards per attempt (5.0) and have allowed 11 rushing touchdowns this season, which happens to be the third-most in the league. If Klint Kubiak doesn't try to get cute in this one and just leads with the run, Cook should be a fantastic play.

FanDuel isn't going to make it easy for you to get Harris into your lineups this week, but the price is quite affordable over on Draft Kings and Yahoo. He's going to be very chalky and rightfully so as this match-up against Detroit is super-tasty. The Lions are giving up 134.5 rushing yards per game with 10 touchdowns on the ground. They also rank dead-last in DVOA against running back pass-plays, so you know there will be enough check-downs and designed screens to make him well worth the spend. He did land on the injury report with a foot issue late in the week, but I don't see it being any sort of a problem for him. UPDATE: With Big Ben now on the reserve/COVID list, Harris stays a strong play, but just understand we will see the Lions defense stack the box a lot more which could make yardage tougher to accumulate.

The Vikings are allowing 136.6 rushing yards per game and while they've only given up seven rushing touchdowns, Ekeler can score from anywhere; pass or run is irrelevant. This game has all the earmarks of both teams trying to establish their dominance at the line of scrimmage and run heavy so look for Ekeler to get a strong workload early in the game. Should the Vikings, who match-up better against a struggling Chargers defense, jump out to a lead, expect a stronger passing game from Justin Herbert and more check-downs for Ekeler to neutralize a solid pass-rush. 

There is always a trust issue I have with Patterson which is why I list him as a GPP-only play. I get it. He's been absolutely fantastic this season, but he isn't a true running back and most of his damage has been done while he serves as a receiver. On top of that, he's only averaging about six targets per game, so if his carries are limited like they've been over the past two weeks, he needs to dominate as a pass-catcher to return value. Can he? Yes, absolutely. But things will have to break right for him, regarding game flow and his usage to return a strong value.

LATE ADD – With the news that Kyler Murray is unlikely to play (he's a game-time decision still but reports are not promising), Conner stands out a whole lot more, once again. I didn't want to be chasing last week's points where he scored three touchdowns, but if Colt McCoy is under center again, Conner should take center stage in this offense. The Panthers rank 19th in DVOA against the run and are allowing an average close to 112 rushing yards per game with seven rushing touchdowns on the year. Eno Benjamin will get some complementary work, but Conner will be the guy you want.

With Nick Chubb (and Demetric Felton) out, Johnson is going to get the full complement of touches against a run defense that ranks 17th in DVOA against the run, allows 108.9 rushing yards per game game and has allowed five rushing touchdowns. There is some obvious concern that Bill Belichick will focus on stopping the run and stacking the box, but the masses aren't even remotely thinking about that for whatever reason. Just look at the Draft Percentage Forecaster and you'll see Johnson is expected to have one of the highest ownership rates for the week. If that's the ‘free square’ we get for cash games, then so be it. Just be careful not to over-invest in GPP tournaments. 

Whether we use Ingram or D'Ernest Johnson is likely going to depend on how the numbers look in the Draft Percentage Forecaster by the time the 1pm ET games are getting ready to begin. Fortunately, they are very similar in price so there won't be much to a pivot of any sort. The Titans run defense has been good thus far, allowing an average of just 100 yards per game with eight rushing touchdowns allowed, but they do rank 24th in DVOA against the run and are dealing with a number of injuries to their interior defensive line and middle linebackers. Ingram is a power back so if the Saints line opens up the running lanes for him , he could push through into the next level of the defense which will make it extremely tough to take him down. Again, we'll wait to see what his ownership looks like to determine his cash game use, but he is still a great salary saver for GPP tournaments. 

Now that Aaron Rodgers is expected to play this week, Adams immediately finds his proper place here in the Playbook. Seattle ranks 24th in DVOA against the pass and allow the 13th-most fantasy points per game to the wide receiver position. The cold weather won't have any ill-effect on his or Rodgers' performance this week and, like I said earlier, Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder means we're going to see him air it out plenty and make a fierce statement against his critics. Adams is just along for the ride and will be the primary beneficiary of Rodgers' ire.

With Chargers CB Michael Davis out, Jefferson will likely be squaring off against Asante Samuel Jr in this one and while the rookie has shown promise, he's just not ready to hang with a talent like Jefferson. Los Angeles was already ranking 21st in DVOA against the opposition's top receiver so this is likely to bump them down even more. The targets have dropped over his last two games, but Jefferson should return back to close to double-digits if we're reading the potential game-flow right. He found his way into the end zone last week for the first time in four games, so look for him to stay on-track this week and continue to dominate.

The Bucs are allowing an average of 257.8 passing yards per game and have coughed up 16 touchdowns through the air. Given the skill-set and the numbers he's posted to date, how do you not put McLaurin into your lineups? Hopefully Taylor Heinicke used the bye to work on some of his shortcomings and he won't make some of the dumb mistakes we saw in the first half of the season. If he can show even a modest level of improvement, McLaurin will reap massive benefits.

Allen has a questionable tag on him, but after logging a t least limited practices on Thursday and Friday, we shouldn't have any concern as to his availability this week. He's seen double-digit targets in each of his last two games and finally got into the end zone for the second time this season during Week 8 against the Patriots. The match-up against slot-corner Mackensie Alexander is extremely favorable and, if we have the game-flow pegged right, the Chargers should be throwing fairly heavily in this game, particularly in the second half. The volume always makes him cash-game viable, but I also like him in a GPP stack. 

I've been touting Evans all week long, beginning Tuesday with the launch of this week's Watch List and finishing up as my Play of the Week on the Fantasy Alarm Show on SiriusXM. I was on him before we knew Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski would be out and before Chris Godwin started showing up on the injury report with a foot issue. Evans has four touchdowns in his last two games and six in his last four. Washington ranks 31st on DVOA against the pass and 21st against the WR1, who is averaging 101.5 receiving yards against them. Washington, on the whole, is allowing 286.8 passing yards per game and they've given up 20 passing touchdowns. The Football Team struggles in coverage overall, so consider the Bucs if you're stacking in GPP tournaments as well. The 51 over/under makes it that much more enticing.

LATE ADD – While I may still be a little gun-shy using Russell Wilson and the Seahawks, the price for Metcalf (and Tyler Lockett), at least on Draft Kings, is affordable enough to look at him for GPP tournaments. The Packers are still without Jaire Alexander and have allowed 15 touchdowns through the air the season. The Seahawks ground attack is also struggling with no Carson and a banged-up Alex Collins so that might push them to the air a little bit more as well.   

The Lions rank 29th in DVOA against the pass and 26th against the opposition's top wideout, allowing an average of 86.4 receiving yards per game to them. Johnson didn't have a great game on Monday night for Week 9, but he remains the most-targeted wideout in this offensive attack and shouldn't have any trouble getting separation from Lions DB Bobby Price. Also, with Chase Claypool (toe) out for this week, Johnson's target share could increase even more than what we've seen throughout the first half of the season. UPDATE: With Big Ben landing on the reserve/COVID list, we are going to pivot off Johnson in cash games but may consider him in GPP tournaments.

Cooper and CeeDee Lamb both make for strong plays this week, but we are sticking with Cooper as the primary with his price coming in a little lower. We'd love to see him targeted like he was in Week 8 when he torched the Vikings for 122 yards and a touchdowns on 13 targets, but are probably going to have to settle for the 6-to-8 range unless Dak Prescott is so hellbent on running up the score after last week's debacle. Even so, Cooper has three touchdowns in his last five games and should prove to be a reliable weapon against the Falcons.

Pittman has been outstanding in recent weeks with four touchdowns and one 100-yard effort in his last three games. He and Carson Wentz have built a strong rapport on the field, he's seeing plenty of targets inside the red zone and has a very tasty match-up against a Jaguars pass defense that ranks dead-last in DVOA against the pass. He's got a very high floor which makes him a great cash-game play, but he's also got the ability to really blow up against the Jacksonville secondary which gives him that delicious GPP ceiling.

If we're going to grab one Jaguars receiver this week to go up against a soft set of Colts cover-corners, it has to be Jones. Indianapolis ranks 26th in DVOA against the pass and 25th against the opposition's No. 1 receiver, allowing an average of 72.8 receiving yards per game. The Colts have also allowed a whopping 23 touchdowns through the air this season, so when the Jaguars start airing it out, you can expect Jones to be the primary beneficiary. 

Even with the news of Zack Moss clearing concussion protocol and the potential for the Bills to run all over a weak Jets defense, we are still expecting Josh Allen to take charge of this game and put last week's loss to the Jaguars as far behind him as possible. While Stefon Diggs is still considered the No. 1 receiver, it feels like Allen is a little more reliant on Sanders and continues to feed him during crunch time. We can also look to the fact that the Jets rank 27th against the opposing WR2, they are allowing an average of just over 60 yards per game to them and Sanders, who is definitely cash-game viable, is significantly less expensive. 

As expected, we've seen a bit of a shift in targets from Teddy Bridgewater with the return of Jeudy to the field. In the two games since his return, Jeudy has logged 12 targets to just six for Courtland Sutton. Simply put, while Sutton still remains a strong threat, Jeudy suits Bridgewater's short-passing style a lot better. The Eagles rank 21st in DVOA against the slot receiver, where Jeudy has lined up for 76-percent of his snaps, and Bridgewater should continue to exploit the mismatch in coverage throughout the game.

If you're looking for the weak spot in the Dallas secondary, it's definitely slot-corner Jourdan Lewis and Gage should be able to help exploit that once this game turns into the shootout we are expecting. The Cowboys are allowing the seventh-most fantasy points per game to the receiver position and that's while counting Cordarrelle Patterson a running back, so expect some good things for the Falcons aerial attack. Of the five games Gage has played this season, he's been held without a catch twice and he's averaged seven in the other three. While we're expecting a solid day for him in this match-up, he's still going to be a GPP-only guy because that zero-floor isn't look good.

The Cowboys are allowing just 12.2 fantasy points per game to the tight end, but they rank dead-last in DVOA against the position and they also struggle in coverage against the slot-receiver, the other place Pitts likes to line up. With no Calvin Ridley, he should remain a focal point of the passing attack and after taking a deeper dive into the Cowboys defense, it doesn't sound like Trevon Diggs is going to move into the slot when Pitts lines up there. Micah Parsons might give him some trouble, but in the end, Pitts should come out on top.

The Falcons rank 17th in DVOA against the tight end position and are right there in the middle of the pack for fantasy points allowed per game. If you're paying up here at TE, Schultz is averaging almost seen targets per game and while he hasn't scored since Week 4, he remains a strong red zone threat for Dak Prescott. Lineup-wise, he can work as a one-off if you don't mind the salary, but might be better as the paydown from the receivers in a Cowboys GPP stack.

While the last two weeks haven't been all lollipops, rainbows and sunshine for Ertz, the match-up here against Carolina is pretty good, if you expect their linebackers to commit to chasing down Kyler Murray once he leaves the pocket. The safeties are going to have a tough time cheating in at all, given Murray's skill-set, so if the outside linebackers over-pursue, Ertz will be left alone with Jermaine Carter in coverage and that's a win for Arizona. 

Fant was activated from the reserve/COVID list earlier this week and he gets back to work against an Eagles team that is allowing the most fantasy points per game to the tight end. Their DVOA ranking is in the middle of the pack, but they do give up almost 60 yards per game to the position, so Fant should see some decent opportunities both in and out of the red zone.

Not only do the Lions rank 29th in DVOA against the tight end and allow an average of 52 receiving yards per game to them, Freiermuth's production and role have dramatically increased in recent weeks. The rookie has seen 20 targets over the last three games and he's turned them into 16 catches for 146 yards and three touchdowns. Even with Eric Ebron returning to practice this week, it looks like Freiermuth and Big Ben have a strong connection, particularly inside the red zone. UPDATE: With Big Ben landing on the reserve/COVID list, you can pivot off Freiermuth in cash if you like, however, I think I'm still going to leave him in. Mason Rudolph has worked with this offense enough to not kill the value of those around him. At least not the guys who catch the short passes.

We'll try going back to the Conklin well again this week as he was good, though not great, in his last match-up. The Chargers are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points per game to the tight end and are 30th in DVOA. If Conklin can even come close to the 72 yards per game they are allowing to the position, he'll easily return value.

Yes, more targeting against the Colts. They allow the third-most fantasy points per game to the tight end and rank 20th in DVOA against them. They're giving up 63.1 receiving yards on just over eight passes to the position, so this pay-down, especially on Draft Kings could be a great bargain play.

It wasn't the Bills defense that struggled last week so there should be no concerns on that front. The Bills rank second in takeaways with 19 on the season while the Jets rank second going the other way with 17 giveaways on the year. Add to that the fact that the Bills allow the fewest yards per game and the fewest points allowed per game and you've got a defense worth paying up for.

The Cardinals are allowing the third-fewest points per game, they rank third in takeaways and now get the chance to take on former AAF quarterback P.J. Walker who is tasked with leading this Panthers offense out of the chasm Sam Darnold put them in. The Cardinals should be very aggressive this week in an effort to rattle Walker and that, in turn will lead to a win in the turnover battle.

The Colts front-seven is one of my favorite in the league and they do a phenomenal job, not just creating turnovers, but creating the chaos in the backfield that helps lead to other mistakes made by the opposition. There's a reason the secondary isn't strong yet has 10 interceptions on the season. Indianapolis leads the league with 20 takeaways and the young, inexperienced Jaguars are going to have their struggles against them. 

With no Nick Chubb and no Kareem Hunt, you can expect the Patriots to do some scheming to stuff the run and force Baker Mayfield into more passing than he or Kevin Stefanski would probably like. New England leads the league with 13 interceptions on the year, so if they do limit the ground work for Cleveland, you can bet the Patriots DBs and safeties will be on some serious ball-hawking duty this week. 

We always like to try and find a deep-dive on defense to save some salary and this week, we're eyeballing the Titans, believe it or not. No Alvin Kamara, Trevor Siemian under center and no threatening wide receivers or tight ends to worry about? Why not look at the Titans who have 13 takeaways this season, including nine interceptions. They held the Rams in check for just 16 points last week and limited the Chiefs to just a field goal two weeks ago. Yes, they have had their struggles at times, but the 44 over/under tells me it's going to be a low-scoring affair and even just a win in the turnover battle could get us the value we need.